2021 NBA Draft Profile: Ziaire Williams

An extremely thin wing who vastly underwhelmed in his freshman year after being a highly-touted recruit, Ziaire Williams might be a chance for the Knicks at finding star upside later in the draft.

Position: Tall guard/wing, Stanford

Age: 19 (9/12/2001)

Height: 6 ft 8.25 in (w/o shoes); 6 ft 9.75in (w/ shoes)

Wingspan: 6 ft 10.25 in

Weight: 188.4 lbs.

Strickland 2021 Big Board Rank: 13

The Sales Pitch: Ziaire Williams is a 6-foot-9 basketball player who plays like a guard but looks like a wing. He showed flashes of elite shot creation during his freshman year at Stanford. He also had flashes of some decent playmaking and very good defensive tools like being able to move his feet to stay with guards on the perimeter and jumping passing lanes for steals (not to mention his insane motor). When people talk about Ziaire, you’ll most likely see that word “flashes” used a lot, because ultimately, that is what you are banking on if you have Ziaire high on your board (which I kind of do, having him as a lottery guy). He is a prospect with a pretty wide range of outcomes, in my opinion, with those outcomes being anything from multi-time All-Star to out of the league within five years. I’m willing to bet on him getting closer to the former. Putting him into an NBA strength and conditioning program should solve many of his problems and help him better utilize his unique skillset at the next level.

Elite Traits/Skills: Shot creation/scoring, defensive tools, motor

The Devil’s Advocate argument: There’s no real way around it, Williams put up some bad numbers this past season. He is a skinny tweener guard/wing who struggled to get to the rim and finish. While he showed flashes of step-backs and deep range, the flashes were too few and far between. Is it worth using a first round pick on a guy who seems like he’ll rely on off-the-dribble jump shooting to score the ball?

The Misconceptions: “As a highly rated recruit (No. 6 in his class) he should have come in and dominated from Day 1.” This is something said by many people for pretty much all of the top recruits coming into college, but sometimes there needs to be more context given, and probably even more so with Ziaire. While, yes, he was the No. 6 recruit in his class... he also was teammates with Brandon Boston Jr. in high school, who just so happened to be the No. 5 prospect in the class (who also played below similar expectations, which was also partly context related). Oh and by the way, he also played alongside Jalen Green (a top four pick in this draft) and Dior Johnson (a probable top 10 pick next year) in AAU. This is to say that Ziaire was never really “The Guy” for his team. While he did have dominant performances at lower levels, it’s just not easy to come into college and just be “The Guy” from Day 1, especially when you already have some good upperclassmen on your team (i.e. Oscar de Silva, Daejon Davis, Jaiden Delaire).

Also some context for the overall Stanford season:

To say his freshman season was weird would be an understatement, and it started from the beginning when he came out wearing a knee brace the size of a small child (which I believe was from him falling off a bicycle). The brace seemed to limit some of the explosiveness that he showed in high school, and everything just seemed slower and awkward for him. He also missed games later in the season going through COVID protocols. Oh, and this is without even getting into the fact that Stanford couldn’t even access their campus practice facilities/gym because of the strict COVID rules in Palo Alto. The team was living out of a hotel and played “home” games at the G League Warriors arena.

Important numbers:

• 37/43/29/80%: His FG/2P/3P/FT percentages this past season. They are not good. The free throw shooting is good, but he only took 2.5 per game.

• 0.795: His points per possession (PPP) on all jump shots off the dribble in the half court, per Synergy. This highlights his ability to create and make his own shot. This ranks in the 53rd percentile (a “Good” grade) on Synergy, ahead of #DraftTwitter darling Nah'Shon “Bones” Hyland (yes I am aware of Bones’ ridiculous shot difficulty and volume, just let me have this).

• 53.8%: His FG% around basket (not post-ups) in the half court, per Synergy. This equates to 1.077 PPP and ranked in the 41st Percentile for an “Average” grade on Synergy. A clear area where he’ll need to improve to show he can be that three-level scoring wing every team is dying for.

• 0.9: His defensive win shares (DWS) per Sports-Reference. I mentioned his defense earlier as being a strength and this number helps show that. I don’t think many people expect freshmen to be good defensively (just like rookies in the NBA), so anything positive here is a good sign.

Knicks Fit: Wings are still the most sought-after position in the NBA. If you can find a wing who can create their own shot and defend, you are golden, and the Knicks don’t really have anyone like this (RJ may get there and Randle could be considered a wing, I guess, but he’s more of a forward or big, in my opinion). While Ziaire is still a question mark in these areas, he showed enough flashes of each during a very strange freshman season that I’m willing to take a gamble drafting him at pick 19 or 21 (or 32 if he falls).