2022 NBA Draft Lottery Roundtable: The Knicks stick at 11
The Knicks did what the odds said they would do and stuck at pick 11 in the NBA Draft Lottery. What does this mean for the Knicks? What players should they target? Which other teams made out the best in the lotto? Find out in our roundtable!
The lottery. Lotto day. Lotería. The somber-est of basketball holidays in New York. Aside from a brief period of my life in which they represented competitive binge drinking, ping pong balls have always represented sadness and defeat for me as a Knicks fan. It’s well documented, but for the uninitiated: the Knicks have not moved up in the lotto since 1984 when they jumped up and were able to draft Patrick Ewing. In a league where pure luck matters much more than pundits and fans want to admit, that is basically a death knell, reducing the margin of error for a front office seeking stars to a thin thread. Alas, we continue on — after all, New York’s own assistant GM Walt Perrin has a history of making magic out of madness, drafting stars like Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell (and soon after, Immanuel Quickley and Obi Toppin, don’t @ me) well outside of the top five. Let’s check in with our own crew of Stricklandites after the Knicks landed at 11 (yay, they didn’t get kicked back to 12 or 13!) last night:
How were you feeling pre-lottery?
Alex (Draft Film School): I felt at peace. My expectation was that the Knicks were not moving up, and my board is pretty flat from 5-14, so even if they moved down it’s all good. Now, that’s not to say I didn’t want them to move up. I desperately did, but I knew the odds were not in their favor.
Oscar: It’s pretty refreshing to go into the lottery without expectations for once. It would have been nice to have higher odds, sure, but we got the premium lottery viewing experience: enough of a chance at a high pick to be excited, but not too high where staying at 11 or moving back was really a disappointment. I was content with whatever happened.
Prez: The pain means nothing anymore. Nothing means pain anymore. I was numb. I am immune. Chaos reigns.
Tyrese: They had a 77.6% chance of remaining at 11, so it was hard to get excited for any possibility other than chalk.
Stacy: If there’s one thing I trust this front office to nail, it’s the draft. Would have been nice to crack the top four and someone with a star ceiling, but they’ll get somebody good.
Did you watch live?
Alex: Yes, and then I had to host a Twitter Spaces for @NoCeilingsNBA (shameless plug) for live reaction and discussion. My co-host is a Kings fan, so he was in the best mood a Kings fan has probably been since 2006.
Oscar: Yep, I had an extremely legal stream pulled up on my laptop.
Prez: Absolutely not, I was several drinks deep at a strategically pre-planned social event by then.
Tyrese: Nope. The Mets are good for the first time in my adult life, I had priorities. Followed the updates on Twitter.
Stacy: What Oscar said.
How you feeling about what happened to the Knicks?
Oscar: Perfectly fine. Like I said, I didn’t have any expectations for New York to move up (although the hype got to me a little bit when Mark Tatum started pulling out the envelopes). No. 11 is a perfectly fine spot to be in, and there are plenty of options in the late lotto range (Johnny Davis, Ousmane Dieng, Bennedict Mathurin, Tari Eason) that I would be happy with.
Stacy: Fine. I think 11 is a fine spot to be in. With the front office already having found a lot of contributors in the draft, they have the flexibility to take a big swing, and there’s also a chance someone unexpected falls to them.
Prez: For some reason, I couldn’t truly imagine the top four guys in blue and orange. Not because they wouldn’t be great here or anything. It just seemed destined not to happen. So I’ve long been much more excited, oddly, about which player the Knicks will get at 11. Like, writing about Dieng or Eason or Davis gets me giddy with possibility, writing about Chet Holmgren and Jaden Ivey just seemed like unappealing fan fiction.
Tyrese: I feel fine about everything overall. The draft feels pretty flat for me outside of the top four, and I didn’t think the Knicks were moving up anyway. Whatever they decide to do with the pick, I’m okay with it.
How we feeling about the other teams that got lucky? Unlucky?
Alex: Sacramento was probably the luckiest moving up from No. 7 to 4 in what most people have as a four-player draft at the top. They cannot miss on this pick after the Marvin Bagley over Luka Doncic debacle a few years ago, so I am scared for that fanbase. Detroit I think are the most unlucky, but they just won the lottery last year and got Cade Cunningham, so don’t feel too bad for them.
Oscar: I think that while Sacramento got really lucky moving up to No. 4, they’re in a bit of a weird spot now. They just traded away Tyrese Haliburton a few months ago, who was originally billed as the star secondary guard next to De’Aaron Fox. So while Ivey should be the obvious pick there, spending a premium asset on another shooting guard just seems like odd process, especially with Davion Mitchell in the mix. They could be an interesting trade-up candidate for a team like the Knicks, though I don’t think any of New York’s Tier 2 young players would be great fits in Sactown, either.
Prez: Sac moved up for Fox, a majorly great (not historically, but still pretty significantly) prospect, had the Bagley debacle, and now they get blessed again, which must be cool. Haterism aside, I think Oscar hit it on the head — they almost have to hope one of the non-Ivey guys is available at No. 4.
Tyrese: Orlando gets the opportunity to stifle the career of another big, OKC gets rewarded for tainting the ethos of our beloved sport, and Sacramento gets to draft ANOTHER guard after trading their best one. Detroit dropped and won the draft because there’s a very real chance they pair Cade with one of Ivey or Shaedon Sharpe, which is a win for League Pass. Ultimately, it just felt… boring. Switch up the script, Silver.
Stacy: I’m just happy New Orleans didn’t move up. Orlando has some interesting options (personally, I find the length/spacing/passing of a Chet/Franz Wagner/Wendell Carter lineup the most intriguing). Ideally, Houston gets Jabari Smith Jr. to boost their defense and shooting and pair with Alperen Sengun, but he may not be there. Do we trust the foot speed on defense of a Paolo Banchero-Sengun pairing? Houston may not have a choice but to find out. Outside top four, I love the fit of Keegan Murray in Indiana. He should be very fun with Haliburton, particularly in transition.
Early favorites for the Knicks’ pick?!
Alex: TyTy Wash….just kidding (even though I do like TyTy as a prospect). The Knicks need to figure out the direction of this team, but at this point, I either want a plug-and-play wing, or the highest of upside swings. So having said that, I like Dyson Daniels or Ousmane Dieng as potential options at 11 for the Knicks. Also, if AJ Griffin or Johnny Davis falls to 11, I would take them over those other guys.
Oscar: The only major archetype missing from this young core is a versatile forward prospect (with all due respect to Obi). The good news is that the late lottery this year is rich with big wings: Ousmane Dieng, Tari Eason, Bryce McGowens, Nikola Jovic, and Marjon Beauchamp are all realistic options in that position group. My bet would be on one of those five, although none of them are great shooters at this point, which is usually a necessity for a Leon Rose pick. I also think Mark Williams is a dark horse for our selection at 11, if none of the upside swings tickle Leon’s fancy and he just wants to replace Mitch.
Prez: I have a tier with AJG, Davis, Tari, Dieng, and Sharpe below the top guys, so one of those bros would be dope. I’m also kind of fascinated by all of the trade-up, trade-down, and trade-out options, though I am terribly bad at speculating about that stuff.
Tyrese: Traded. I cannot see this team making a pick with all the youth they want to give minutes to and two more picks in the first round alone coming in a deeper draft in 2023. If they were to make the pick, however, Tari Eason, Malaki Branham, or Johnny Davis would be my pick.
Stacy: I’m confident none of the top five (Chet, Jabari, Paolo, Ivey, Sharpe) falls to the Knicks. I’d pencil in Murray as someone unlikely to fall as well, though crazy things happen around draft time. But assuming Murray is also gone, I’d rank the remaining options as follows:
Johnny Davis, AJ Griffin, Bennedict Mathurin, Ousmane Dieng, Tari Eason, Dyson Daniels. I agree with Oscar that a versatile forward is the big missing piece, but the Knicks also lack a true reliable three-level scorer, and that’s what Davis could be. His work ethic and defensive tenacity also perfectly fits the culture the Knicks are building. Griffin is an elite shooter with size, and if he can get back to his high school level of athleticism, he has a chance to be the best player in the draft. But that is very much a bet you’re making, and in college his defense was not good because of that diminished athleticism. Mathurin probably offers the best mix of a high floor with some intriguing upside. He has the skill and shooting ability to fill it up from the perimeter, but is also a high-level vertical athlete with good length. Dieng is an intriguing ball handler with passing ability and the kind of size, length, and fluidity Oscar was alluding to, though he’s a project, while Tari is an athletic marvel at 6-foot-10 with some ball handling ability and high-level defensive motor. In a similar vein, Dyson Daniels is a 6-foot-8 ball handler who plays point guard right now, but projects more as a connector and high-level team and on-ball defender with length (hope you can notice a theme here…).
