2022 NBA Draft Profile: AJ Griffin
Equipped with a Day 1 NBA body and a wet jumper, can AJ Griffin overcome a robust injury history and subpar interior game on the Knicks?
Position: SF, Duke
Age: 18
Height: 6 ft 6 in
Wingspan: 7 ft
Weight: 225 lbs
The Sales Pitch: Wings that can shoot make the league go round. AJ Griffin is entering the NBA with the chiseled frame of a veteran, and a shooting resume that borders on historically great: he hasn’t shot less than 40% from three in years, which is especially incredible considering even good shooters in high school regularly sit in the low 30s. He spent most of the year at Duke shooting around 50% from three despite taking a wide variety of tough threes, and despite other teams knowing Coach K was going to solely deploy him as a 3-point shooter. And lest the long distance shooting get all the attention, he was also a great shooter on long twos, on short twos, on runners, and at the rim. He shot it well everywhere. His touch is incredible. While he may not be a nuclear athlete, there is a very good reason to think he’ll have much more opportunity to score in a variety of ways and handle the ball in the NBA, where coaches will take advantage of his shooting as more than just an outlet for others. In short, I wouldn't bet against him being the next sweet shooting swingman scorer to enter the league.
Elite Traits/Skills: Touch, 3-point shooting
The Devil’s Advocate Argument: Let’s talk about injuries. AJ has had a ton of them. Missed a year in high school from a dislocated knee. Back injuries. Multiple ankle injuries. Almost every year for four years, something has hampered him. Beyond that, even if he is a great shooter, he’s only 6-foot-6 (with a long neck) so he’s not going to be able to pull over anyone a la Klay, KD, Middleton, PG-13, Tatum, Lavine, etc., so he’s not quite a prototypical wing. Finally, we hope he can become an inside-the-paint scoring threat with the leverage of his jump shot, but that is not guaranteed at all… and if he can’t generate layups, then you’re ultimately talking about an OK defender who does most of his damage on very tough shots — not a recipe for stardom.
The Misconceptions: A couple. Firstly, he’s not the elite athlete his reputation would make you think. Injuries likely sapped him of some vertical explosiveness, which he showed in high school. Secondly, as mentioned above, he’s not just a run-of-the-mill shooter — he’s a ridiculous shooter.
Important Numbers:
45.8%: His 3P%
10: His threes attempted per 100 possessions — a high number
44.9%: His 2-point jump shot percentage
44%: His FG% on runners
62.5%: His FG% on plays where he runs off screens
65%: His FG% around the hoop (not including post-ups)
.179: His free throw rate (a pretty bad number)
23%: Percentage of his shots at the rim (a low number)
Knicks Fit: Offensively he would give New York a young elite shooter with versatility to complement any players who did more damage in the interior like RJ Barrett. He also projects to be a switchable wing due to his length and strength, which is good. Having him and RJ at the 2 and 3 means one of them is likely chasing around combo guards on defense, which isn’t ideal, but it’s something you’d deal with while trying to unlock young AJ’s considerable shot creation upside.
