Assessing the Knicks’ ability to trade up to No. 1 or 2 in the draft

So far, 2020 has been a year of strange events, to put it lightly. The offseason heading into this year’s NBA Draft is no different. For starters, the draft is slated to be held in November (we hope). On top of that, there is no franchise-changing talent in this draft, let alone a clear cut No. 1 prospect, with many believing this draft is one of the weakest in recent memory. The top two picks are held by the Timberwolves and the Warriors, both of whom expect to be competing for the playoffs next season (and in the case of the Warriors, a championship). 

With those factors in mind, it should not be a surprise that both teams are seeking out offers to improve their teams, with the No. 1 and No. 2 picks both being in play. But what would it take? The Knicks are one of the few teams in position to capitalize on this market, with a myriad of assets at their disposal to potentially net either of those picks. However, trades require both parties to have their needs met, and with both the Timberwolves and the Warriors gearing up for potential playoff runs, their needs are very specific. Below, I ranked needs for each of those two teams, and though the specific order might be debatable, these are likely the kind of players the Wolves and Warriors will be looking for. Some player’s sheer talent may outweigh the needs of the team for any given offer, but we would be foolish to think their criteria is simply “best player we can get.”

The goal of this article is clarifying the picture: looking at what those teams need and what the Knicks have, rather than arguing what they should or shouldn’t move.

Ranking team needs 

Timberwolves

1. Wing defenders

2. Defensive stretch 4

3. Backup ball handler

4. 2021 draft capital

5. Cap relief

Warriors

1. Wing defenders

2. Backup ball handler 

3. Rotation-level center

4. Wing depth

5. Trade capital

Heading into next season, wing defense is vital for both teams. Klay Thompson, when healthy, is one of the better two-way wings in the league. However, with next season slated to start sometime after Christmas, how long will it take for Klay — now 31, and 18 months removed from high-level basketball — to be able to get into form, if at all? Can Golden State rely on Wiggins to handle tougher assignments during the regular season? (Gonna answer my own question here: no.) The West, and the playoffs in general, are increasingly situational matchups where teams deploy a variety of wings to adjust to different opponents and schemes. Long gone are the days of Klay, KD, Iguodala, and Shaun Livingston giving the Warriors infinite versatility. Instead, they have Klay, Andrew Wiggins, and Eric Paschall — not exactly a deep and versatile two-way wing arsenal. Similarly, they are down from five ball-handling playmakers (Curry, KD, Draymond, Iguodala, Livingston) to two (Curry and Green).  

For the Timberwolves, while Josh Okogie is a fantastic defender, he presents a positional conflict with Malik Beasley, who the Timberwolves acquired mid-season and likely plan to extend given how he ended the year averaging around 20 points per game of elite shooting. Okogie is also a dreadful shooter, shooting 27% from three over his first two seasons. Maybe Jarrett Culver can fulfill this need down the line, but his rookie campaign was not that encouraging, and the T-Wolves may seek an upgrade sooner rather than later. Okogie and Culver are promising in their own ways, but if the Wolves intend to compete in the gauntlet of the West, they likely need more production out of their wings — on both ends of the court — sooner rather than later. 

Getting picks in the 2021 draft, which is said to be one of the deepest in NBA history, can also be appealing to both teams, even if it doesn’t help them win next year. Both are still likely trying to balance winning now with being competitive in the next few years — neither are pursuing a Houston Rockets level ante-up of all their chips. The Warriors currently have two first rounders in the 2021 draft and the Timberwolves traded out of the draft entirely in order to acquire D’Angelo Russell (ironically, from the Warriors). The Dubs, if they acquire a third 2021 pick, could put together an incredibly strong package to net themselves another All-Star caliber player, or use the picks to develop their next core. The Timberwolves could potentially find a wing creator to pair alongside KAT and D-Lo through the 2020s. 

For the Timberwolves and Warriors, this likely isn’t an either/or situation: the more realistic and appealing packages should be a combo of player(s) and pick(s), unless a deal involves another team taking bad deals off their hands (perhaps the Wiggins contract in the case of the Warriors, and perhaps James Jones’ $16 million expiring deal for the Wolves). 

What can the Knicks move?

So we have an idea of what the Timberwolves and Warriors are likely looking for… Do the Knicks have what it would take to scratch any of those itches?

Potential Knicks assets

1. 2021 New York first rounder

2. 2021 Dallas first rounder

3. Mitchell Robinson

4. 2020 New York first rounder (No. 8)

5. Frank Ntilikina

6. Reggie Bullock

7. Kevin Knox

8. Julius Randle (hey, maybe someone out there thinks he’s worth a gamble!)

9. Dennis Smith Jr.

By far, the most valuable assets the Knicks can offer are the picks they own in 2021. For teams not named the Knicks, a Knicks first round pick can be considered gold, given the franchise’s luck and history with trading their first rounders. The Mavericks should be a solid team in 2021, with their unprotected first likely ending up somewhere in the middle of the draft. For a draft whose middle tier can be compared to this year’s top 10, the pick certainly has value. 

The eighth pick in this year’s draft would place either team in the heart of where the high-end wings in the draft are likely to be picked. Devin Vassell is the sturdy, high floor, 3-and-D wing that would blossom next to a creator like Steph Curry and could provide the defensive presence that the T-Wolves have been searching for. Isaac Okoro could also be a target, due to his aggressive on-ball defense, untapped playmaking potential, and elite finishing. If the shot becomes passable, he could become an intriguing piece for either team. Similarly, Pat Williams would be a solid foundational stretch 4 to help them transition into the coming decade. Onyeka Okongwu could very well be the kind of 5 who helps the Warriors win now and later, and may drop to eight. Much of the value of the eighth pick depends on these two teams’ individual big boards, and also on how eager the teams ahead of the Knicks (Detroit at seven, Atlanta at six, Cleveland at five) might also be to trade up.

Mitchell Robinson would provide the Warriors with an elite finisher, roller, and rim protector on one of the most cost-effective contracts in basketball. Slated to make a little over a million dollars the next two years (provided his 2021 option is picked up, which it very well might not be), Robinson would add another dimension to an already potent Warriors offense. We’ve seen a few centers get exploited on the perimeter and at the rim during these Western Conference playoffs, and Mitch and Dray together could make the Warriors infinitely adaptable. 

Below Mitch, there is a bit of a gap in asset value, but these other pieces can likely complement any headlining piece should the Knicks make a move. While not as efficient as Mitch, Frank Ntilikina can slot in as a backup ball handler that both clubs could find useful and neither have. At 6-foot-6 (that 6-foot-4 measurement is an absolute lie) with a 7-foot-1 wingspan, he can play as a combo guard next to another creator and focus on doing what he does best, clamping folks (and hitting corner threes). Also, he's completely jacked now. Does this look like a guy you want locking up the other team? I think so. Reggie Bullock is a cost-effective small wing movement shooter, which is always going to be a popular piece to have. Knox and DSJ would be upside-play throw ins. Julius could be a strong bench piece that comes off the books after a season (don’t laugh — you can’t tell me with 100% certainty that James Johnson or Andrew Wiggins are gonna help those teams next year more than Randle would!). 

Moving up in the draft any year usually costs a pretty penny, and moving from the bottom half of the top 10 into the top two would cost even more so, even if the class itself isn’t as strong as in other years. Historically, the cost of doing business is the lower-picking team’s pick plus another impact player, or a combination of picks. After all, the Pelicans received the eighth, 17th, 35th, and a future first, just to let Atlanta move up from No. 8 to No. 4 for Deandre Hunter of all players. On the other hand, the Mavs famously gave up a lone first (with protections!) to move from No. 5 to No. 3 for Luka Doncic, so while we know the cost of moving up is steep, how steep is an open question. It would likely require a strong offer — however, if the Knicks are sold on LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards being a key cog in their machine for years to come, they definitely have enough gold in the treasure chest to come to the table, regardless of what you think they should or shouldn’t offer.