Breaking down Collin Sexton’s candidacy as a New York Knicks trade target
The Knicks have been linked to Collin Sexton in trade talks in recent days as a potential trade target. Should he end up on the Knicks, would he be a good fit? Is the price right? Should the Knicks extend him for north of $20 million next year? A panel of Strickland writers discuss.
Hi, Prez here. The Knicks are perpetually looking for a lead guard who can drive, playmake, and shoot. A report from The Athletic published July 11 indicated that the Cleveland Cavaliers might not want to pay a max contract to young scoring guard Collin Sexton, who will be up for new money after the upcoming 2021-22 season. Another report two days later indicated your Knicks are the biggest suitors. This begs a question examined by many: is it worth trading for — and then potentially paying — Sexton? Some may say he’s a 22-year-old, efficient 25 point per game scorer, and with growth ahead of him and a hole at the 1 spot, the Knicks shouldn’t overthink it. Others might say he’s not the playmaker or passer the Knicks need, and is too small. I don’t know where I stand on it personally, so for this piece I am going to see what Strickland contributors Ted and Collin Loring say after dealing with my constant wavering, counterfactuals, and annoying questions.
Prez: Friends, before we get to the hypothetical particulars of a trade, give me your gut reaction to Collin Sexton the player. Underrated? Overrated? Just rated? Strengths, weaknesses? Hairstyle? Personality?
Ted: When Sexton first entered the league, and especially after his rookie season, I was very low on him. But a resurgent junior season from him has me clamoring for the Knicks to move for him (if the price is right, both in terms of trade package and contract extension). Sexton took 34% of his shots at the rim, which would lead the non-*lfr*d P*yt*n guards on this team by far. Sexton shot 61% on those 319 attempts at the rim, again, easily the best among the Knicks guards. Sexton’s 37% on non-corner threes would fall behind both Immanuel Quickley and Derrick Rose, but Sexton was assisted on just 68% of his threes, while Rose was assisted on 91%. Sexton’s 13.3% shooting fouled percentage (91st percentile among combos on Cleaning the Glass), would lead Knicks guards by far — Quickley and Rose were both around 8.5%. In fact, Sexton’s SFLD% was the eighth-highest among points and combos on CTG — only behind the likes of James Harden, Trae Young, and Russell Westbrook. The biggest question mark for Sexton offensively is how much of a willing passer he is — while his AST% went from 14.4% to 21.8%, his assist-to-usage ratio only went from 0.53 to 0.74.
The absolute biggest question regarding Sexton’s fit with the Knicks is defense — the Cavs are looking to move Sexton, at least in part, because a Garland-Sexton (or Sexton-Green or Sexton-Garland-Green) backcourt is simply too small. Assuming you think that IQ can, or should, be starting sometime soon, would the Knicks be making the same mistake by playing two smaller, somewhat redundant guards? Can Thibs and the Knicks scheme a defense that can account for that potential weakness, even — or especially — in the playoffs? Should that even matter at this stage?
Prez: Thanks for the stats, us NERDS appreciate it. I actually have some more good ones that are right in line with what you’re saying — for example, he’s a solid spot-up shooter at 40%, despite playing in lineups which our friends at BBall Index rated an F. For comparison, that’s what RJ’s surrounding lineups rated out as the year before this. He might have some shooting in the tank in the Knicks’ better-spaced lineups (still feels weird typing that).
I do want to talk about his defensive weakness. What KIND of bad defender is the feisty 22-year-old? He always struck me as a dude with good effort but too short in stature, with bad technique, and bad know-how. In that way, he’s different from Elf and Rose, who are both bigger guards who know what to do, but historically are super inconsistent with regards to effort. For all his shortcomings on defense, Elf was still 6-foot-4 with a plus wingspan. Collin, how we feeling about his defense? Can we get him to be regular bad instead of tire fire? How about to neutral? TO GOOD?!
Collin: Let me start off my response here by noting the absolute obvious: Tom Thibodeau is going to get the best defensively out of anyone he coaches, absent Elfrid Payton, noted two-way guard. I think it’s important to remember that Collin Sexton is 22 years old, and regardless of what I make of his defense, that he can only get better under Thibs.
From everything I’ve gathered, the Young Bull is often the hardest working guy in the room. His work ethic knows no bounds. It’s not shocking to try and piece together just what it is about Sexton that intrigues Thibs, who I’ve no doubt is a large supporter of this potential move.
But on his actual defense, I mean Sexton did average a steal per game the last two years. I don’t think that means he’s a good defender, but I don’t think you can be a bad defender and do that, right? According to Basketball-Reference, he played 57% of his 2100-plus minutes at shooting guard last year, where he was increasingly undersized in the bigger moments. But barring a Kyle Lowry bombshell signing, he’d be back at point guard full time in New York. I think that’s the starting point for however drastic the improvements are that he needs to make.
As an aside, I’d also challenge either of you to tell me who the best defender was on last season’s Cavaliers. It was probably Isaac Okoro, if anyone, and that should say enough. Situation isn’t everything, but it matters. I think the current state of the Knicks would be good for a lot of players, but it might be the best fit for Sexton, my own personal bias aside, kind of.
Ted: I agree with Collin that the Knicks may actually be the best fit defensively, questions regarding a Sexton-Quickley backcourt aside. I think we’ve seen the idea that playoff defenses are powerless to prevent playoff offenses from targeting undersized players this year — Trae Young went multiple series without being targeted like armchair coaches wanted. And if he buys into a Knicks team that’s competing for a playoff spot, I think he can get to normal-bad (or even okay) caliber defense.
Prez: As you are a fellow Collin, I’m not sure if I can trust your biased arguments, but they sound fairly convincing. Before we get into how the Knicks can acquire him and what he is worth as a free agent, one last question about his game: While he is a penetrating force and a good shooter, those shots at the rim and 3-pointers aren’t the main weapon in his arsenal when it comes to scoring. Last year, around 39% of his shots came from three feet in to the 3-point line; 25% of his shots came from 3-10 feet. On those shots, he killed and shot 45%. In his three years in the league, he has shot 31, 39, and then 45% in that range. His rise in short middy proficiency is nothing short of prolific.
(As an aside, that is basically what D-Rose shot for the Knicks from that range in his time here last season... he may be due for some regression)
But is it real? Are you buying that Trae Young level of proficiency from short middy? And further, are you at all worried about our already-mid-range-heavy team doubling down on yet another high volume middy guy?
Collin: I like to think I’m less of a “fellow Collin” and more like the Collin, and anyone else is just a less impressive version of me. That’s going to contradict what I’m about to say, though. My buddy Evan Dammarell (@AmNotEvan on Twitter) was talking earlier this week and he called Collin Sexton an “elite, three-level scorer.” I did everything but scoff at hearing that, but then I thought about it: he actually kinda is. For those who missed my tweet from the other day, Sexton is one of just five players in the first three years of their career who recorded more than 19 PPG on a 45/35/80 split. The other four? Brandon Roy (elite), Karl-Anthony Towns (maybe not elite but he can score on all three levels), Kevin Durant (yep, elite), and Mitch Richmond (averaged 20-plus PPG in 10 of 14 career seasons, make of that what you will).
The New York Knicks need scoring (miss you Melo) more than anything right now. So whether he’s elite or not in general may not be as pressing a question given that in regards to everyone on the roster not named Julius Randle, he’s in a tier of his own on offense.
So no, I’m not concerned that he may come in and add to the already mid-range centric shot diet on this team. Thibodeau has earned my blind trust after one year. If they’re not worried about it, I’m not worried about it. And if they are, well they won’t trade for him then, will they?
Ted: I think there’s some reason to expect regression from short midrange, but there could be some balancing out between decreasing his diet of midrange shots in favor of shots from deep or at the rim with the more spacing proficient Knicks. Or perhaps pairing him with an elite roll-man like Mitchell Robinson can unlock easier offense from the short midrange for him!
In terms of pairing another high-midrange guy with Randle, it gives me some pause, but at the projected price Sexton would cost, I won’t be picky. My concerns made me think to go through some of Sexton’s NBA.com playtype data, and it came back with some interesting results. With 528 pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions this season, Sexton scored .92 points per possession. The best PPP on the Knicks this year as a PnR ball-handler was .98, which both Rose and IQ hit. Sexton had a 1.15 PPP on possessions deemed as “off-screen” this season, but just 59 such possessions. I went back to last season’s numbers, and he scored 1 PPP on 50 off-screen possessions. NBA.com says that Sexton also scored 1.2 PPP on 71 possessions as a cutter this season, too. Could Sexton benefit from taking more off-ball reps playing alongside Randle and Barrett, despite his rep as a ball-dominant guy?
To be clear, though, Sexton would be coming here to take a lot of on-ball reps, too. Sexton averaged the ninth-most drives per game last season according to NBA.com, with 16.8. While his finishing is currently closer to average than elite, and his passing numbers have never been great, it’s a bet I’m willing to take that he’d improve both with the Knicks.
Prez: Is he though, Collin? He’s OK at the rim, OK at drawing fouls, OK at shooting threes. His rim FG%, FTR, and 3P%/3PR are all closer to OK than elite. Like Ted said, he seems more interesting than elite. Maybe he’ll get there, but right now he seems like a guy who is just solid everywhere. Which is fine! Especially at 22!
Which brings me to my next question:
Rumors say the offer is something like one of the Knicks’ two 2021 firsts, Obi Toppin, and Kevin Knox for Sexton. That’s not nothing — Obi was a top 10 pick after all, and he still has reservoirs of scoring potential — but it seems too good to be true. After all, even if Obi plays tremendously, he’s still going to be Julius’ backup. How do we feel about 1) this offer and 2) its likelihood of being legit? The Lakers can offer Kyle Kuzma and pick 22, teams like the Heat and Spurs can throw young guards at the Cavs in addition to pick(s). Maybe I'm just still fighting the remnants of 20 years of “if it can go wrong, it will go wrong” negativity as a Knicks fan.
Ted: The base offer of a mid-first, Toppin, and Knox for Sexton feels almost like a no-brainer to me. There’s functionally no way the Knicks will enter next season having drafted three players this year, and Sexton helps fill the biggest hole on the roster while clearing out the logjam of having Toppin behind Randle. And while I’ve really enjoyed Toppin, and he was a top 10 selection a season ago, we need to be realistic about what he’s going to become in the NBA, especially for this team. Turning Knox and your backup 4 into a starting point is an opportunity you can’t really pass up, in my opinion.
In terms of its legit-ness — Toppin plus one of the Knicks’ picks alone is better than the Kuzma-plus-Lakers-pick package, and Knox is just a sort of sweetener, an upside play for Cleveland. As for Miami’s offer, likely based around Tyler Herro, it could make sense for Cleveland to prefer that, assuming the Rockets select Jalen Green and Cleveland selects Evan Mobley in the draft. The same could be said for a potential San Antonio package, based around one of their guards. And it’s worth noting that the Cavs reportedly passed on Toppin last season in favor of Okoro, in part because they weren’t sold on Toppin’s defense. After a rookie season where he was much better than advertised there, have they changed their mind on him?
Collin: If this is the field of offers right now, I’m feeling confident the Knicks can pull this off. I’m not sure Kuzma or Herro stock has ever been lower, and I don’t think the Cavaliers are going to be interested in one of the Spurs guards, going back to the entire reason they’re trading Sexton.
Toppin was on Cleveland’s radar ahead of last year’s draft, with concerns over his defense reportedly why they opted to pass on him for Okoro. I think in the playoffs he showed that he’s further along on that end than was expected of him. New York has a more appealing pick than Los Angeles, and I also wonder how motivated the Cavaliers would be in doing business with LeBron James. His exit the second time around was obviously more amicable, but still.
The Knicks lead the pack, if this is all that’s out there for Sexton right now.
Prez: I personally think it’s less Cleveland changing their mind and more resetting to a true rebuild with players under team control for a while. Which, for example, Herro wouldn’t be, as he’s due for a payday. So, let’s assume the unlikely — in my opinion — happens, and Cleveland doesn’t get any thirsty and desperate teams biting for Sexton and is left choosing between an Obi/Knox/first deal and a Kuzma/first deal, and they choose dealing with their former comrade Brock Aller over importing a bold fashionista/slightly overpaid combo forward.
The elephant in the room is what happens after. To me, what happens following Sexton’s hypothetical first Knicks season is pretty clear: either they sign and trade him for a very big fish — say, Bradley Beal — or they sign him. Assuming maybe he gets a little shooting bump from the spacing, New York still plays top-five defense with him, and generally speaking he gets a nice reputation glow-up as a bucket-getter in the Big Apple... what kind of payday is he looking at, and who else might the Knicks be bidding against? How does that factor into a potential trade?
Ted: This is the true downside of the trade, to me. There was some reporting earlier this offseason that the Cavs were going to give Sexton a max extension, but that’s turned out to be false. The potential sign-and-trade option for a big fish is enticing, but probably unlikely. The 2022 free agency pool is potentially stacked, but it’s unlikely most of the big names move. In terms of other bidders, if Chicago loses out on Lonzo Ball this season, they could very easily open up cap while keeping Zach LaVine. Cleaning the Glass projects San Antonio to have $40 million in cap next year, so if they really want Sexton, they could become determined to try to outbid New York for him. Lastly, assuming Miami makes no major moves this offseason, they could open around $30 million, and could, like San Antonio, pursue Sexton in restricted free agency.
There’s no real bright line to how much I feel comfortable paying Sexton and how much I don’t. Max is a big three letter word, and I question whether what Sexton does, even in an ideal season, would earn him one. Would the market even be pushing his contract demands that high?
Collin: I think regardless, you do the deal, but I’ll echo the same concerns. I’d expect a number of teams, including those we’ve already mentioned, to jump in on a Sexton sweepstakes. He’s also a big fan of Jimmy Butler reportedly, so New York could get Victor Oladipo-ed a la the Houston Rockets, no? But I think that ultimately brings the conversation back to the price tag, and that even at the risk of losing Sexton next summer, it’s still a good value for New York. I’ve long been on the Obi Toppin support train, but it does appear that Julius Randle is here to stay, and as long as that is true, there isn’t going to be a legitimate role for Obi on this team. In regards to what he may cost on that market, I’m curious to see what Spencer Dinwiddie earns this summer. I think that could set the tempo for whatever’s next for Sexton. Can he truly get five years and $125 million from someone? I find that hard to believe. Does that mean Sexton wouldn’t be able to find that deal next summer? Not necessarily. But I need to see what the going rate is for a base-level scoring starting point guard now to get an idea of what it will look like then. Personally, if Sexton’s season shakes out like I believe it would on this team, I’d be comfortable with the Knicks paying him $25 million annually. But that’s likely the ceiling for my comfort zone.
Prez: There are definitely more questions than answers with regards to what his market looks like. It sounds like all three of us agree that we don’t want to pay him a max, but that there IS a comfortable range so long as he doesn’t short circuit and regress. We’re spitballing in the dark here, for the most part. This is where we — optimistically — hope that Aller, who was in the Cavs’ war room, and Rose, who was Colin’s agent, know exactly what he needs to flourish, and the implications of that for negotiations.
So this was a long way of saying “TBD” on both Sexton the player, and Sexton the contract. If the Knicks acquire him, it will be exciting, but not without a fair bit of nerve-wracking uncertainty. Let’s hope whatever they do, Leon, Wes, and Brock do it with more confidence than we have!
