Decompression, Part 1: A look at what happened on draft night 2022 for the Knicks
The NBA Draft took place exactly one week ago, with the Knicks making so many moves that it felt like it took seven days just to sort through them. So what did the Knicks get? How can those assets help them going forward? How useful are those protected picks? Prez tackles all that and more.
Normally, I would ensure we – The Strickland – had immediate reaction content for you avid readers the day after the draft. This year, I made a call to wait a bit. Selfishly, it was so I could process my own feelings before firing off hot takes I would regret. Professionally, it was so all of us could do the same while I waited for more information to drip out on goals, justifications, etc.
I’m not gonna hold y’all, I kind of hate live watching and reacting to both the lottery and the draft. The lotto is more obvious — as someone who prioritizes mental health, I hate personally earmarking time for expected disappointments. For the draft itself, though, it is a bit more complex… the total draft nut in me who is excited to see which players each team picks wants to tune in, but the Knicks fan in me hates it. I hate it because this Knicks front office wheels and deals a ton, so it’s hard to really see the endgame in real time. It’s therefore very hard to separate the outcome from the journey, both for better and for worse. That being said, before we get to relive the emotional roller coaster, let’s talk purely about the aforementioned outcome and what the flurry of transactions actually netted the Knicks. This stuff is complicated, perhaps more so than player evaluation, which is why we are breaking it into two articles — so buckle up!
(And if you insist on not buckling up, and don’t like reading, check out the latest Draft Strickland pod with Tyrese where we cover a lot of the same topics.)
WHAT DID THE KNICKS EVEN GET?
Through a series of transactions, the Knicks traded:
The 11th pick
Kemba Walker
Four second round picks
Denver’s 2023 first round pick (protected top 14 in ‘23, previously owned by OKC)
For:
Milwaukee’s 2025 first round pick (top four protected in 2025, previously owned by DET)
Washington’s 2023 first round pick (top 14 protected, with downscaling protections over time, previously owned by OKC)
Detroit’s 2023 first round pick (top 18 protected, with downscaling protections over time, previously owned by OKC)
Approximately $13 million in cap space
What they did not do:
Give up a first to move off Kemba. They gave up four seconds, and exchanged one first for another first, which might be superior, albeit further down the line.
We will get into exactly how good those firsts are, and the value of those second rounders shortly.
Here is the actual transaction order:
DEAL WITH OKC: No. 11 for three 2023 firsts belonging to DEN, DET, and WAS, possessed by OKC
DEAL WITH CHA/DET:
NYK sends the DEN ‘23 first and the four seconds to CHA, CHA sends No. 13 to NYK, and DET sends the MIL ‘25 first to NYK
NYK sends Kemba Walker and No. 13 to Detroit
What they decided not to do:
Draft AJ Griffin (fifth on The Strickland’s 2022 Draft Big Board, fell to ATL at 16)
Draft Tari Eason (10th on our board, fell to HOU at 17)
Draft Jalen Duren (11th on our Big Board, fell to Charlotte — and the Knicks, who obtained the 13th pick and sent it to Detroit to upgrade firsts and move off of Kemba)
Draft Ousmane Dieng (12th on our big board, fell to NYK at 11, who traded the pick to OKC for more picks after NYK entertained offers from both CLE and OKC for the pick with sights on Dieng)
Draft Jalen Williams (14th on our Big Board, fell to OKC at 12)
What they closed the day with:
Drafting Duke combo guard Trevor Keels at 42
Signing Dominican guard Jean Montero, who last played in the Overtime Elite league and went undrafted, to an Exhibit 10 deal.
And lastly, for the record, what they tried and failed to do:
Trade ???? for the No. 4 pick, owned by SAC, to pick Jaden Ivey.
Trade ?????? + the No. 13 pick for the No. 5 pick, owned by DET, to pick Jaden Ivey.
We have heard a variety of rumors on what exactly those question marks entail, but no confirmed reports. Your guess is as good as mine in terms of how many firsts were involved, whether the offer to DET had the new OKC picks, or whether any offer had Obi Toppin or Immanuel Quickley. We just know they thought they had a real shot, and were disappointed when they couldn’t pull it out with Detroit (per Ian Begley, who is pretty bulletproof as far as reporting this stuff).
ARE THESE PICKS EVEN GOOD?
“Prez, the streets telling me these picks are heavily protected and not even worth anything! Are they even good if they’re not unprotected? Are these ever even going to become real first round picks? ”
I’m glad you brought that up. How good are these picks, when they will likely convey, and what that means for their value in trades are all really valid and important questions before we even get to analyzing what the front office thinks.
Could we have at least obtained an unprotected first?
Firstly, very few future picks traded are flat out unprotected these days. You usually only see those in superstar deals (and Dejounte Murray deals, apparently) precisely because they hold a very high value, since most teams are an injury away from the lottery. You might see a same-year unprotected pick traded, since the teams have a clear grip on what exactly it would result in. But that is really it. Those are pretty rare in trades.
OK, so where’s the line between good, decent, and bad protections?
When mediocre-to-bad teams trade picks, you usually see some form of lotto protection descending over time — in other words, top 16 protected (or something similar) initially so that if the team moving the pick doesn’t make the playoffs, they keep it. Then the protections usually loosen — it might be top 10 protected the year after. Eventually, they become a second round pick or two if they never convey as firsts. Which all makes sense if you think about it — a bad team would only deal an unprotected pick if they were getting a superstar who ensured they would no longer be bad.
One under-discussed element of pick evaluation is the importance of how long protections last before they become much less valuable second rounders. That’s almost as important in evaluating a pick as the actual protections themselves. For example, say the Knicks had a pick that used to belong to OKC which has weak protections — say, top eight protected in 2023 — but if it doesn’t convey in 2023 it becomes a second rounder in 2024… that pick is, on the whole, probably not great, even though top eight protections normally are great! But if it is protected so that it is top eight protected in 2024, then top three in 2025, then top one protected in 2026 before picking a second rounder in 2027… well, that pick is probably coming around as a first rounder at some point.
So in my opinion, the “bad” protected picks are ones that are never going to become first rounders. Or ones that convey really soon and are owned by elite teams, so you know they’ll be like… the 30th pick, or whatever. Picks that convey in the late lotto or right after the lotto can be better or worse depending on how far out they are, the variance with the team attached to the pick, etc. It is hard to have a bright line rule, to be honest.
What can a run-of-the-mill protected pick even get you?
Protected picks can go pretty far these days. The Knicks’ own newly-acquired MIL 2025 pick (which has only a top four protection) was traded for Jerami Grant, a solid sub-All-Star level player (albeit nearing new contract time). Cam Reddish was obtained for a top 18 protected first rounder (which had descending protections until becoming a second rounder in 2026, and will pretty much convey if the Hornets make the playoffs between now and then). Caris LeVert was obtained from IND by CLE for a lottery protected first. Derrick White was obtained by BOS for a top four protected 2022 pick which would be in the low 20s, plus a top one protected 2028 pick swap (so, basically the Celtics’ 2028 first nearly unprotected).
Those guys all range from fliers (Cam) to solid contributors (White). Some other reference points for you… Aaron Gordon was traded to Denver for a 2025 pick top five protected (with the same protection on it for a few years in case Jokic is kidnapped one season). That’s similar to the Bucks pick the Knicks have, in that the trading team had an MVP candidate, so the Nuggets pretty much threw apocalypse protections on it as AG was one of their ‘’over the hump’’ pieces. Nikola Vucevic, coming off of an All-Star season, cost two picks, each top four protected (one became Franz Wagner in 2021, the next one is the Bulls’ ‘23 pick. That is what we in the biz call a heist).
As a final minor aside, protected picks can also tie up a team’s ability to make trades because you can’t trade future picks in consecutive years, which benefits the team holding the pick. For example, the Knicks have the Wizards’ 2023 pick with protections, and if they had wanted to trade a 2025 pick for, say, Dejounte Murray, they would have to make the 2023 pick unprotected so that it conveyed no matter what in that year. And unprotecting picks is a big no-no these days.
We’ll next review the protections on the picks, and the quality of the second rounders the Knicks moved, but the TL;DR is these picks are your run-of-the-mill solid firsts likely to convey to someone as first rounders eventually, probably in drafts better than the 2022 one. The picks are not golden goose eggs like, say, the Brooklyn picks held by the Rockets, but they are also not “fake firsts” by any means at all.
ANALYZING PICK PROTECTIONS AND QUALITY
Milwaukee’s 2025 first round pick: Milwaukee’s first round pick to New York (via Portland to Detroit) protected for picks 1-4. If it does not convey to New York, it goes to New Orleans.
Verdict: Will almost certainly go to NYK, or whoever holds it, in 2025, unless Giannis is somehow out for the season causing MIL to tailspin into a horrible year, resulting in a top four pick. It could hold at end of first round because of Giannis, but could also be earlier since Jrue/Khris might be washed. Solid value.
Washington’s 2023 first round pick: Washington's first round pick to New York (via Houston to Oklahoma City) protected for selections 1-14 in 2023, 1-12 in 2024, 1-10 in 2025, and 1-8 in 2026; if Washington has not conveyed a first round pick to New York by 2026, then Washington will instead convey its 2026 2nd round pick and 2027 2nd round pick to New York
Verdict: If the Wiz are in the lotto in ‘23, it will get bumped back a year. They have been wildly inconsistent but if they get a point guard like Malcolm Brogdon to go with Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, and their wings, they’ll likely be in the mix for the play-in. If not, the protections shrink and continue for years, so this will almost certainly convey at some point as a first — and depending on how the next couple years go for the Wiz, it could be quite a solid one, somewhere between 9-16 even. And if it conveys in 2023, well it’s a hell of a draft, so that’s pretty good too. Solid, maybe even very good. Arguments could be made for it being better if it conveys in 2023 (great draft), or for preferring it to convey later (when it would be more useful for the Knicks in a trade for another player).
Detroit’s 2023 first round pick: Detroit's first round pick to New York (via Houston to Oklahoma City) protected for selections 1-18 in 2023, 1-18 in 2024, 1-13 in 2025, 1-11 in 2026, and 1-9 in 2027; if Detroit has not conveyed a first round pick to New York by 2027, then Detroit will instead convey its 2027 second round pick to New York.
Verdict: Most likely to convey in 2025. Protections extend pretty far. In 2023 and 2024 it would only convey if the Pistons not only make the playoffs, but manage to avoid the play-in. Remains to be seen whether DET will continue to rebuild slowly around Cade Cunningham/Jalen Duren/Jaden Ivey, or if they turbocharge it with vets. Either way, DET will probably be rising as several East powers are falling (hi, Brooklyn), so it’s a solid pick.
ANALYZING THE SECOND ROUNDERS THE KNICKS SENT TO DETROIT
Jonathan Macri once said that second rounders are the cost of doing business in the modern NBA. He’s right — they get moved and acquired and dumped and circulated constantly. It’s not to say steals cannot be found in the second round, they absolutely can in the modern NBA — it’s just that they also serve another purpose as transaction cost currency. We’ve seen the Knicks turn Willy Hernangomez into two seconds; we’ve seen Brock Aller turn literally thin air into a second, and turn a second into Rokas Jokubaitis. We’ve also seen the Knicks get an elite rim-protecting, rebounding center from a second. We’ve now seen seconds used to dump the Knicks’ expiring contracts (the Nets did the same with DeAndre Jordan). The Cavs used a second to gamble on perceived malcontent Kevin Porter Jr. in the draft. One of these purposes does not preclude the others, particularly when you have a ton of seconds like the Knicks do.
Now, quickly, an overview of the seconds the Knicks sent out for posterity (not including the two sent out in the Nerlens Noel/Alec Burks deal):
‘23 NYK
‘23 lesser of DAL/MIA
‘23 UTA
‘24 NYK
Rule of thumb: If you insist on evaluating quality of seconds, the worst teams’ picks land earlier in the second round. So, none of these are really projected to be early second rounders (AKA ‘’good’’ second rounders). I also don’t blame the front office for sending out ‘23 seconds, even though the class is great, because the Knicks already have a roster crunch, and multiple ‘23 firsts. New York literally couldn’t use them if they wanted to, and therefore needed to use them for something productive sooner rather than later. The value, to the Knicks, of three of the four seconds is going to evaporate in about a year, and Aller turned them into $13 million in cap space for their No. 1 free agency target in Jalen Brunson. That’s a fucking pro move, and top notch use of assets in the margins resulting in a really good player. That’s not nothing!
Even with sending those out, the Knicks still have nine second rounders over the next seven years. We don’t even remember all the times the Knicks grabbed seconds — did you know New York got a 2024 second for moving Keon Johnson for Quentin Grimes? And I promise you, they’ll probably grab some more second rounders, beyond 2023.
OK Prez, we get it, this front office likes thinking about numbers and playing 5D checkers and kicking the can down the road, and pick value is variable and underrated at the same time, blah, blah, blah. That doesn’t explain why the fuck they would do all this when good players like AJ Griffin and Jalen Duren were on the board and they’re still looking for THE MAN on this team. Are you actually OK with what they did when some of these players might evolve into franchise game-changers?!
Well friend, stay tuned for Decompression, Part 2 for answers to those questions. #talksoon
