Five keys for the Knicks to shock the world and beat the Celtics
Well, folks… it’s time.
After a grueling series against the upstart Detroit Pistons, the Knicks have set themselves up with a matchup against the defending champion Boston Celtics. Some might argue that this was inevitable. All paths to glory go through Boston in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have made (at least) the Eastern Conference Finals the last three seasons and six of the last eight.
It goes beyond that, though. This Knicks team was built to compete with Boston. They spent an entire season preparing (the Knicks’ starters played over 25% of non-garbage time minutes this season) the lineup they think is best suited to handle Boston’s five-out attack. The Knicks are big underdogs – Draftkings has Boston as 8-to-1 favorites – but I’m here to tell you there are ways the Knicks can make this series competitive.
Find a way to keep Boston off the 3-point line
On opening night, Boston made the statement of all statements. This new Knicks team had the third highest projected win total AND the third highest championship odds. Again, they were built to compete with Boston. The Celtics, frankly, embarrassed the Knicks in a game that was never close, riding their record-tying 29 3-pointers to a blowout victory.
Seven months later, not much has changed for Boston. And why should it? This is a team that won 61 games on the heels of cruising to a championship. In a league that seems to be valuing space more each season, Boston continues to set the pace. Over 53% of their shot attempts were 3-pointers this season. No, that’s not a typo.
While this introduces some terrifying performances like opening night of the regular season, it also invites plenty of variance. As adept as modern shooters are, 3-point shooting is still prone to volatility. The Celtics have created a paradigm where they’re close to unstoppable if they’re making their shots. But they’re susceptible to slumps and the Knicks could have an opportunity off the bat.
There is also a way to potentially limit Boston’s 3-point barrage that not only is untested, but should be very familiar to this Knicks team. Opponents’ ghost coverage on Josh Hart has been well covered. Every person analyzing this team knows that opponents stick their center on Hart and have him roam as a lurking help defender, willing to live with almost anything Hart can do so long as it decreases the chance of Hart’s teammates getting open shots.
What if I were to tell you that the Celtics themselves have a player who has struggled mightily from three this season? Someone who has been a below average 3-point shooter for the last three seasons, but whose efficiency dropped to just the 27th percentile. Jaylen Brown, last season’s Finals MVP, has many strengths as a basketball player, but shooting isn’t one of them. Turning him into a spacer as an exploit is a strategy nobody has tried yet.
Most teams choose Jrue Holiday as the player they’re willing to live with shooting open 3-pointers. But Holiday has sneakily been a sharpshooter. Before this season, he shot 38% or better from deep the last four years. Holiday won’t beat you attacking the paint like he used to, but he remains a quick processor and dangerous shooter.
Some people may be hesitant to try this strategy because of Brown’s undeniable talent. Give him space and he may use it as a launchpad to leverage his elite athleticism and skill. This may be true, but I would consider an outcome where Boston unwinds its offensive machine to run it through Brown a massive success. So long as the close-outs and rotations are sound, and the other four defenders stay home, this could be a way to reduce the number of 3-pointers allowed.
Leverage Karl-Anthony Towns’ size and shooting
On the other side of the court the Knicks need to take a page out of Boston’s book. The Celtics turned a great team into a powerhouse when they acquired Kristaps Porzingis and went all in on maximizing the potential space. They’re talked about as a team that loves to shoot 3-pointers, but Joe Mazzulla’s primary goal is actually to get to the rim. The 3-pointers they shoot are merely their way of punishing the defense for protecting it.
The Knicks have their own stretch five who can create a similar ripple effect. Karl-Anthony Towns is arguably the greatest big man shooter in NBA history. He demands attention. Give him even a breath of airspace and he will make you pay. Similarly, while the Knicks were probably hopeful that Towns’ presence would increase their 3-point ceiling, there had to also be some hope that it would open up pathways to the rim for guys like Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby and Hart.
I said it before the Pistons’ series, and I’ll say it again: the Knicks’ ceiling will not be hit if it’s the Brunson show. As fun as the “Captain Clutch” memes are, this team’s upside will only be reached if ALL of its players are maximized. This is what makes Boston great. All of their players thrive within their system. No one player’s success comes at the expense of the other’s. In round one, the Knicks had, by far, the worst offensive rating (ORTG) of any team that advanced to the second round. It was a series that saw inconsistent play from every Knick not named Jalen Brunson.
That was enough to squeak by an upstart Pistons team, but it likely won’t be against Boston. And Boston has the guards and wings to make things tough on Brunson. They’re also extremely well-coached with an advanced commitment to their principles. They know when to stay home and when to send help. When they do send help, they know where to help from. Brunson will get his points — he’s too talented not to — but the Knicks can’t expect him to “don his cape” and carry them to victory. Towns’ strengths must be leveraged if the Knicks are going to make this a competitive series.
That’s not just his shooting. If Mitchell Robinson is healthy enough to play 20-plus minutes in a game, the Knicks can go a different direction and pair Towns with Robinson and Hart and attack Boston with size. Sometimes fighting fire with fire is a doomed strategy, especially if your flame is smaller than the other. Should the Celtics come well-prepared to stop the Knicks’ smaller lineups, Tom Thibodeau has to be ready to pivot quickly.
Let Josh Hart be Josh Hart
Two things are undeniably true:
Tom Thibodeau is going to play Josh Hart a ton of minutes
The Celtics are going to ghost Hart whenever he’s on the court
If we can agree on those two things as a near-certainty, then we can probably agree that Hart is an X-factor in this series. He’s going to have endless opportunities to leave his imprint on these games, whether that’s as a defender switching onto Boston’s stars, crashing the glass, pushing the pace, initiating certain possessions or being used as a screener. Hart’s presence should be felt.
The Knicks need to lean into Hart’s strengths and punish the Celtics for disrespecting his jumpshot. Hart needs to be a willing shooter when left WIDE open, but the Knicks likely aren’t winning this series on the back of a flurry of Hart 3-pointers. No, the Knicks will win when Hart is countering the Celtics’ exploit so heavily that he forces an adjustment. So how can he do that?
For starters, he needs to push the pace at any opportunity he gets. Ghost coverage may seem simple (just ignore the non-shooter!), but, as we saw in the Detroit series, maximizing its effectiveness is actually extremely difficult. Unfortunately, all three of the Celtics’ big men (Porzingis, Al Horford, Luke Kornet) are extremely adept at executing this coverage. Hart grabbing rebounds and pushing the ball up the court will disallow the Celtics from matching up how they want to. Hart’s ability to push the pace becomes even more valuable when Brunson sits. He should play all of the non-Brunson minutes.
One other way to punish Boston’s treatment of Hart is to use him as a flare screener. The Knicks haven’t leaned into this much this season, but it’s a good way to spring shooters like Bridges, Anunoby and Deuce McBride open off the ball. It also just gives the defense something to think about besides stopping the ball handler. Too often the Knicks allow all five defenders to ball watch without punishment. That needs to change if the Knicks are going to give the Celtics any trouble.
Will the real Deuce McBride please stand up?
A lot of talk was made about McBride throughout round one. McBride was mostly mediocre (for his standards), but I thought it was mainly due to missing shots. From games 1 to 5, he still helped the team as a spacer and a defender. The Knicks’ defense allowed a staggering 96 points per 100 possessions in the 79 minutes McBride played in those games.
Game 6, however, was another story.
McBride looked like a deer surrounded by headlights. This time, it wasn’t just that his shot wasn’t falling, it was as though five games of missing shots had finally compounded in his head to break all other aspects of his game. He was consistently out of position defensively, probe dribbling in the paint without purpose, and generally didn’t belong out on the court.
McBride won’t win or lose this series for the Knicks, but the team needs him to play to his potential. McBride was in the 84th percentile of Dunksandthrees’ effective plus minis (EPM). He’s shot 41 and 37% from deep the past two seasons and his defense, particularly at the point of attack and as a screen navigator, has been excellent.
But what makes McBride special to this team is his effect on his teammates. Due to the nature of how defenses respect his ability and willingness to shoot, any Knick who shares the court with McBride tends to have more space to operate in. How about this for an astounding stat? Jalen Brunson shot 12% better at the rim and eight percent better from beyond the 3-point line when he shared the court with McBride.
The Knicks need that kind of passive impact desperately so that the guys with the ball in their hands — Brunson, Towns, Bridges — can have a higher chance at success.
Tom Thibodeau’s time?
Everything I listed above hinges on Tom Thibodeau coaching the best series of his career. Thibodeau is famously rigid. Sometimes it appears as though he’d rather go down with the ship of his choice than sail safely on an unfamiliar one.
There is, of course, a chance that Thibodeau has been right all along. Maybe all of this has led to this Knicks team being prepared for the Celtics in a way very few are expecting. Maybe the Knicks’ underachieving starting unit (53rd percentile in non-garbage time net rating) is being slept on because they were preparing for this very matchup. Were that to happen, it would be a validation of Thibodeau’s process that has left many frustrated.
But that can’t be the expectation. And should it not play out that way there has to be a willingness to lean into something else. Everything must be on the table for the Knicks to steal this one. All coverages, lineups, and strategies. Thibodeau needs to quickly get comfortable with being uncomfortable.
For example, we know that Thibodeau hates the idea of an opponent winning a one-on-one matchup and getting to the rim. His instinct is to send help and put his defense in rotation. But what if the alternative is a wide open Derrick White 3-pointer? The answer this series could be staying home on the shooters and living with whatever results from Tatum or Brown or even Porzingis going one on one with a mismatch.
There are countless more examples of this. This is a series that will call for adjustments that we haven’t even thought of yet. It will likely take Thibodeau coaching in a way we have never seen from him. This Knicks team shouldn’t be expected to win, but they should be expected to compete. Thibodeau’s benchmark shouldn’t be an 8-to-1 upset, but it needs to be that of a coach who is open to making the adjustments required to win multiple playoff series.
Is Thibodeau that coach? I think we’re about to find out.
