Grizzlies 120, Knicks 108: Mitchell Robinson has been the Knicks’ best player
The Knicks fell to one of the hottest teams in the West, but as per usual lately, strong play from their young core provided a silver lining, especially the defensive dominance of Mitchell Robinson in the paint.
One game closer to the trade deadline. Despite a spirited effort by the Knicks in front of their home crowd, that’s all I could think as they were beaten handily by a team that is where many Knick fans were optimistic New York would be at this point in the season. How did it happen? Let’s dive in.
You know the drill
The Knicks came out of the gate slow, once again, falling behind 8-1 in less than three minutes of gameplay. However, this slow start did not resemble the ones we have become so familiar with. The effort was there, and there was some decent offensive execution as the Knicks racked up 27 first quarter points against the league’s seventh-rated defense. RJ Barrett, who took on the defensive challenge of guarding Memphis superstar Ja Morant, led the early offensive charge, setting the tone with consistent aggressiveness attacking the basket, and helping the Knicks stay in fighting distance with the machine-like Memphis offense. The Knicks trailed 35-27 at the end of the first quarter.
A struggling bench
This is about the time when the “bench lineup,” as it’s been designated by observers of Tom Thibodeau’s hockey shift-style substitution pattern, would enter the game and cut into the deficit the starters had built. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Part of the reason was because the Grizzlies, astutely, found a loophole in the NBA bylaws that allowed them to stagger their rotations such that they started the second quarter with three of their five starters, including two of their three best players, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane, on the floor. One can only hope Thibodeau filed a motion with the league’s higher-ups.
The biggest reason for the bench’s struggles, however, is that they just have not been very good lately. Alec Burks’ January, one that saw him shoot just 33% from the field, has been well-documented, but the shooting struggles of their other initiator, Immanuel Quickley, have flown slightly under the radar. Now, to be fair, Quickley certainly deserves a longer leash with Knick fans than Burks. For starters, he has been a far superior defender this season. But, more importantly, Quickley is just 22 years old, and has had his role jerked around all season long. When you have a head coach, and a meaningful part of the fanbase you play for, telling you you can only be one thing (*cough*, NOT a point guard), it is understandable for a young player to struggle finding his way.
With that being said, last night’s 2-7 3-point performance dropped Quickley below the 30% mark over his last 11 games, and his 2-point percentage is, somehow, lower. While he is bringing other things — defense, some distribution, consistent energy — the scoring that made us fall in love with him last season has been no match for the always ominous sophomore slump.
Nerlens Noel, meanwhile, has alternated between not being healthy enough to play and not being good enough to deserve to play (maybe related to not being healthy enough to play well).
The last two players who fill out the bench unit — Quentin Grimes and Obi Toppin–have been much better than their bench mates during this stretch. But the contributions they bring are, largely, limited. Toppin tries hard on defense, but as a small-ball center masquerading as a power forward, he is woefully miscast chasing people around the perimeter. He is, somehow, even more miscast on offense, as a floor spacer (shooting 25% from three) largely operating as far from the basket as he’s ever been, allowed to run the occasional pick-and-roll. And while Grimes has already carved out a niche for himself as the Knicks’ best wing defender and 3-point shooter (yes, he’s that good at both), he is still incapable of being a primary initiator for an offense that desperately needs one. This results in a lot of empty actions with possessions ultimately resetting, hoping Quickley or Burks can draw a foul or the defense will make a mistake they can capitalize on. Memphis did not make many mistakes last night, and they led by 12 at the half.
Thibodeau Tracker
Which brings us to Thibodeau. I’ve previously touched on a few of the major issues I think Thibodeau has brought to the team this season. In short, the rigid way he views roles and positions lead him to make head-scratching rotation decisions that have hurt the team both short & long-term. Toppin is barely cracking 15 minutes per game because he’s not allowed to share the court with Randle. Burks started 20 games instead of Quickley because, well, I’m not quite sure why. Neither Burks nor Quickley get to the rim very much, which was supposed to be the reason the Knicks had to start Elfrid Payton last season.
Regardless, as a starter, Burks was awful. His shooting percentages as a starter were a big reason his January looked so dreadful, and we are no closer to figuring out how Quickley fits in on the court with Barrett and Randle. I’m going to say this again for the people in back who didn’t hear me the first 11 times, the lineup of Quickley-Grimes-Barrett-Randle-Robinson has seen just NINETEEN minutes on the court together this season. That’s absolutely fucking bonkers.
Last night’s game against the Grizzlies shined a light on a different Thibs-ism that seems to only exist to drive me mad: he views his players within the context of how the unit he plays in is doing. We saw a glimpse of this against the Miami Heat last week. Barrett (6-11) played a good game through three quarters while Alec Burks (1-8) was horrendous. Yet, as the bench unit led a patented Knicks fake comeback, Barrett, probably the Knicks’ best player that night, sat on the bench with the rest of the starters.
This happened last night in a slightly different form. Kemba Walker played 17 painstakingly horrendous minutes. That’s fine. In fact, I can see a world where it’s not even Thibodeau’s fault Walker is still starting. It could very well be a mandate from the front office to try and up Walker’s trade value. But there’s not one chance in hell that Thibodeau was told to play Walker for almost eleven straight minutes to start the third quarter last night… which is what he did! Because the starters looked competent to start the third, and because Thibodeau, apparently, has little ability to isolate the individual from his unit, Walker kept playing. And playing. And playing.
Yet, aside from being attacked relentlessly on defense — Ziaire Williams, Kemba Walker’s main defensive matchup the Knicks “hid” Walker on so he did not have to guard Morant, had 12 points in the third quarter on 5-5 shooting with Walker on the floor — and air-balling a wide open 15-footer, he contributed nothing. Which is why it was completely fitting when he checked out of the game with 1:26 left in the third quarter and, in spite of the inspiring performance by the rest of the starters, the Knicks had only cut the deficit down to nine points. Could the deficit have been smaller if Thibodeau replaced the struggling Walker with Quickley, Grimes, or Burks earlier in the quarter? As long as Thibodeau continues to execute rotations this way, we will never know.
Mitchell Robinson
Let’s end on a good note, shall we? Mitchell Robinson was phenomenal. He played his most dominant game of the season, and perhaps the best of his career considering the opponent. The game itself was a masterclass. He battled on the glass with the menacing Steven Adams, who looks like Aquaman’s older brother, and more than held his own. He also had one of his better scoring nights, with 14 points on 7-8 shooting.
But, given the nature of today’s NBA, Robinson’s battle is rarely with the opposing center, and his job is not to score. Robinson is there to meet scorers at the rim and make their life as difficult as possible. Last night Robinson met one of the best young paint scorers the league has in Ja Morant. Coming into the game, almost 40% of Morant’s shots came within five feet, and Morant was shooting 65% on those shots. Both of these are phenomenal numbers for a guard standing just 6-foot-3. Last night, with Robinson on the floor, Morant was just 3-11 inside five feet in the half court, and four of Robinson’s eight blocks were at the expense of ill-fated Morant field goal attempts.
This may surprise some, but it shouldn’t. Robinson has been the Knicks’ best player this season. And I’m not sure it’s close. Robinson, despite being a staple in one of the worst and most frequently used starting lineups in the NBA, has been a bright spot of the Knicks’ disappointing season. Mitch leads Knicks rotation players in: PER, true shooting percentage, total rebound percentage, block percentage, win shares, win shares per 48, and a host of other advanced metrics. And while his impact numbers don’t look as impressive (the team is -51 with him on the court this season), he is more specifically tied to Walker than anyone else in the starting lineup. No player plays a higher percentage of his minutes with Walker than Robinson. Of the 1177 minutes Robinson has played this year, 548 have been played with Walker. Robinson is -116 in those minutes. That’s right, the Knicks are winning Robinson’s minutes meaningfully when he does not play with Walker.
One week
Through it all, I actually believe the Knicks played an encouraging game. They held the Grizzlies’ two best scorers, Morant and Bane, to just 36 points on 13-45 shooting. The Knicks showed energy and spirit from start to finish. The Grizzlies were just a better team. We can live with that. But this game also highlighted the need for some self-awareness, both on a micro and a macro level. The micro is simple: Thibodeau. Everyone is waiting for the trade deadline to make the decisions for him, but the Knicks are running out of games to make this season count.
Which brings us to the macro. When the Knicks hired Thibodeau they knew what they were getting. He flamed out of his first two stops in Chicago and Minnesota for very similar reasons; he was set in his ways and was a poor talent evaluator. He doesn’t have to flame out here for those reasons. We’ve seen the good he brings. In fact, we saw it last night. Thibodeau gets guys to play for him in a way your parents will tell you the Knicks of the ‘70s were founded upon. He draws up defensive schemes on a nightly basis that put the Knicks as a team in the best position to make life difficult on the opposing team. It’s no accident that, even in a lost season, the Knicks are a fringe top-10 team in defensive rating. It’s on the front office to make the moves necessary that both play to Thibodeau’s strengths and limit his weaknesses, if he’s their chosen coach to lead the team. It’s time to consolidate assets and clear up room for the Knicks’ most important young pieces this last third of the season.
Thirty games left. It’s time to see what they got.
