How containing the Hawks’ potent pick-and-roll could swing the series for the Knicks
Trae Young and the Hawks have made a living off of the pick-and-roll this year, using it in a variety of ways to propel themselves to a breakout season similar to the Knicks’. How can New York keep Atlanta’s favorite play in check during this series?
It’s no secret — stopping the Hawks starts with effectively guarding pick-and-roll, a play Atlanta runs, in various iterations, more than any team in the NBA. Due to Trae Young’s considerable talent, all of these various actions put immense pressure on the defense, presenting a conundrum in four parts:
1. Trae can be deadly shooting the three off the dribble if the defensive big drops and his primary defender doesn't get through, or tries to go under, the screen. While Young shot the three at just 34% this season, that can be attributed to a particularly difficult shot diet. New York will not survive conceding open step-up threes to him.
2. Even if his defender does enough to run him off the line, Young can fairly consistently make his pet floater against a dropped big, or draw irritating fouls by abruptly stopping and allowing the defender to crash into him.
3. If the defensive big comes up too high to deter the three or the floater, Trae, an excellent lob passer blessed with two fantastic lob-finishers in Clint Capela and John Collins, can alley-oop you to death. Or, if the big has to contest the floater, that leaves an elite offensive rebounder in Capela to feast on misses at the rim uncontested.
4. If another defender is required to rotate from the perimeter to “tag” the roller, Trae’s elite passing skills really shine, and he is equipped with an army of excellent shooters to choose from on the perimeter. This forces New York into very difficult rotations and closeouts.
So, how do you limit this team? Here are two keys to grounding the Hawks:
Let’s start here: the Knicks’ strategy should be to force as many Young contested floaters as possible. While Trae shoots the floater at a clip well above league average (47% from the short midrange per Cleaning the Glass, ranking in the 77th percentile for his position), that shot is almost by definition inefficient. More to the point, a Trae floater, especially if well-contested, is a far less dangerous outcome than a Trae three, a lob dunk, or an open three by Kevin Huerter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, or even John Collins. The more New York can credibly guard the Young pick-and-rolls two vs. two and avoid entering difficult rotations, the better off they will be. How can they do that?
It all starts where it all starts — at the point of attack. Whoever is tasked with guarding Trae must put forth the effort and discipline necessary to navigate through screens consistently and stay on his hip, but without fouling. That job is most certainly easier said than done, but in the Knicks’ three wins against the Hawks this season, they have demonstrated that ability in stretches, though not nearly consistently enough.
Elfrid Payton has undoubtedly struggled the most sticking with Trae through screens, habitually conceding the lane as a runway, offering him the multiple options New York is seeking to avoid.
Watch how the small Capela bump on the dribble hand-off knocks Elfrid off his path. He never regains contact with Young, dooming Mitchell Robinson (more capable than most) of guarding what is now essentially a 2-on-1. Mitch puts forth a great effort, but Trae is able to complete the lob to the rolling Capela. This is what I mean by guarding the action two vs. two — if Elfrid can remain on Trae’s hip through the screen, Robinson can position himself closer to the roller, and rely on Elfrid to contest a low-percentage floater — a shot that would constitute a win for the defense.
The other option would be to ask the weak-side help — Julius Randle in the above clip — to help on the roller, but that opens up Atlanta’s 3-point game. Watch this, for an example:
Again, Capela doesn’t provide much of a roadblock here, yet Elfrid is taken entirely out of the picture. That forces Mitch to engage Young to wall off the drive, which in turn forces RJ to stay back an extra moment tagging the roller — Capela — to prevent the lob. Since the third defender is forced to engage late, RJ’s man pops wide open for a three. When that shooter was Cam Reddish, the Knicks could live with that result, but the current iteration of the Hawks features almost no weak shooters. Consequently, that is not the type of shot they can give up consistently and prevail.
Though the vast majority of actions in which Payton guarded Young resembled the prior two clips, I have proof that he is actually capable of doing better. If he does remain the starting point guard and defends Trae for segments of games, he must channel at least this version of himself on each and every possession:
This effort is certainly nothing special, but Elf was at least in quasi-pursuit, hands extended out, to the point that Trae is at the very least aware of his presence. Even that slight improvement allows Mitch to hang back enough to break up the lob. Of course, Mitchell Robinson is the New York center best equipped to handle this assignment, but the principles are the same for any of the Knicks’ bigs while playing drop coverage.
Derrick Rose, who arrived after the first Atlanta game but participated in the latter two matchups between the teams, proved himself worlds superior to Elfrid when it came to pursuing the ball at the point of attack:
Rose actually fights over the screen and remains on Young’s hip, allowing Taj to hang back to prevent a lob to Collins, and New York’s perimeter defenders to stay relatively close to shooters. Rose’s effort results in precisely the type of floater the Knicks should be thrilled to concede.
Here, Rose again competes through the possession with an aggressive pursuit of the ball. Watch how Nerlens Noel, content with Rose’s position on the Hawks’ point guard, is able to literally turn and sprint back to the lob threat like a cornerback to an open receiver to deny the pass in football. That is the difference between conceding a runway and pursuing the ball-handler. That’s the type of effort New York needs in this series.
Immanuel Quickley was not given the Trae Young assignment often during the regular season, but when provided with the opportunity, the rookie displayed the perseverance and intelligence necessary for the task.
Now, when it comes to Trae Young, that type of supreme effort does come with an element of risk — namely, the butt foul:
I’ll say two things, and two things only, regarding Trae’s tuchus:
Query whether referees will be far more hesitant to blow those whistles come playoff time. NBA history suggests that they will.
To prevent these “fouls”, New York’s defenders should commit to closing to Trae’s hip — on his side — rather than chasing from behind. Specifically, if possible, they should endeavor to close to Trae’s right hip, since he exclusively shoots his floater right-handed.
For a perfect illustration, watch what D-Rose did down the stretch of the February clash between the two squads:
That was a downright inspiring effort. Rose fights through two screens to contain Trae, but note specifically how he is positioned perfectly on Young’s right hip, yet Trae, bereft of a left-hand, opts for the right-handed floater anyway. With the ball thus exposed, Rose is enabled to display that still-elite athleticism for an incredible block.
A word regarding New York’s current pair of anchoring centers, both of whom I found performed unsurprisingly well in drop coverage on Young screen-and-rolls as long as the point-of-attack defense was passable: while Taj Gibson can always be relied upon to execute flawless positioning on these actions, Noel — more defensive artist than scientist — tends to get slightly more creative, mixing in more aggressive hedges and quasi-blitzes, like this one:
That was the Knicks’ most aggressive defensive possession in three games against the Hawks this season. Nerlens disrupts the entire Atlanta possession by surprising Young with a sudden, aggressive hedge, dislodging the ball, ultimately leading to a live-ball turnover. Mixing up looks against a star initiator is always a good idea, at least occasionally, but Nerlens has to beware of overdoing it, or worse, playing it in-between, as he did here:
That late reach at the foul line falls on the wrong side of the risk/benefit analysis that goes into every possession — he has but a slight chance of poking the ball away, and if he misses, you see the result. Nerlens has earned some degree of freedom in how he guards these actions, but he’ll have to be slightly more disciplined than usual against the Atlanta attack, and when he chooses to gamble, he must do so early and with full commitment.
The other element the Knicks could utilize to force Trae into more contested shots and take away his passing game (the dude averaged 12 assists in the three games against New York) is to switch more — absolutely 1 through 3, and probably even 1 through 4.
The Hawks often begin possessions with a token guard-to-guard screen. This should trigger an automatic switch for New York, especially since Reggie Bullock, RJ Barrett, and Alec Burks are more than capable of containing Trae, probably as well as any of New York’s point guards can.
(Note how Burks stays tied to Trae through the screen, then navigates to the right hip to contest — perfection.)
Yet, these simple actions during the regular season caused unnecessary confusion and led to easy Atlanta baskets. Watch as RJ and Rose both follow Trae off the Huerter screen, leading directly to an uncontested Capela dunk. You can even see Rose yell at RJ to communicate following the error.
That is low-hanging fruit that obviously needs to be cleaned up for the playoffs, and I would expect New York’s wings to switch those actions seamlessly in this series.
More intriguing, though, is the decision whether to switch Randle onto Trae when John Collins screens. Collins is a difficult assignment, since he’s an explosive finisher at the rim, and has turned himself into a very good 3-point shooter. When New York didn’t switch, Randle found it difficult to contain Trae’s drive, then recover back to Collins’ pop.
A switch in that scenario would have prevented the uncontested shot, but would have asked Julius to contain Trae, and for Payton to guard a potential Collins post-up. I say, let them try, as New York did here:
This is precisely the type of offense into which the Knicks should attempt to force Atlanta. It favors New York’s pace, prevents Trae from getting downhill, and forces the Hawks into a style in which they aren’t particularly comfortable. If Payton has defensive value, it is in his sturdiness and switchability, as he demonstrates in that clip.
Randle has proven himself over and over this season to be a masterfully switchable big — guards haven’t really shown any desire to attack him, and when they have, it has almost always resulted in a difficult shot. Young was no exception.
I mean, look at that mammoth of a man move those feet through multiple changes of direction in crunch time!
For all of these reasons, I’d be surprised if New York doesn’t start switching Randle onto Trae automatically at some point in this series. I’d also be surprised if the strategy didn’t prove to be effective.
Ultimately, Trae Young’s Atlanta Hawks are very difficult to guard. New York will make mistakes — runways will be conceded, fouls will be committed, lobs will be ooped, threes will be made. But if the Knicks can make Trae Young into a contested scorer as often as possible, they can tilt the scales in their favor. It will require these two things:
Pursue with vigor at the point of attack, allowing the other four defenders to stay as close to their men for as long as possible.
Switch cleanly and intelligently, disrupting Atlanta’s favored downhill attack.
The scoring will take care of itself. The Knicks will need to take care of the defensive end to reach the second round.
