How Kawhi Leonard’s DNA is all over Julius Randle’s 2021 emergence
Julius Randle, thanks to his well-built frame and technical designation of “power forward,” is often compared to his big man contemporaries. But after a recent interview revealed that Randle has used Kawhi Leonard as his inspiration to improve this year, is it almost more appropriate to judge Randle as a wing?
One look at Julius Randle — that massive, burly, 6-foot-9, 250-pound frame — and you can’t help but imagine him bulldozing poor souls in the paint and finishing through contact. That image, plus shared left-handedness, is probably the source of the interesting but ultimately misguided Zion Williamson comparison, one recently spewed by the, well, often-misguided Charles Oakley.
Sure, Randle used to be that kind of player — before his arrival in New York, Julius had never taken less than 56% of his shots at the rim in any season, per Cleaning the Glass (Zion currently takes an absurd 80% of his shots at the rim). During his single season in New Orleans, the most efficient year of his career, 80% of Randle’s shots came within 14 feet of the basket. The contrast between his shot distribution from that year to this season is staggering.
2020-2021 Julius — All-Star Julius — has taken just 13% (!) of his shots at the rim, which ranks in just the 24th percentile of NBA bigs. Only 51% of his shots have come within 14 feet, while Julius is heaving a career-high 27% of his shots from behind the arc. Most astonishingly, 22% of his attempts have come from the dreaded long-midrange area (beyond 14 feet), good for the 99th percentile of NBA bigs. Coaches would be unwise to encourage this particular monumental shift in shot distribution, yet Randle has survived it, and even thrived on it, by shooting the lights out from both the midrange and 3-point land.
So no, Julius Randle is nothing like Zion Williamson. But who should we compare him to?
When Adrian Wojnarowski asked Randle on a recent podcast what he did over the extended offseason to improve his game so significantly, Randle provided a fascinating answer:
“...I really watched a lot of Kawhi and his championship run with Toronto, and for me watching that, it helped me learn what I really wanted to be specific about as far as being able to get to spots on the court. ’Cause last year was a big learning experience for me, like, I can’t just bully to the rim every time — it’s not going to be just shoot threes or bully to the rim. I’ve got to have some kind of in-between game where defenses load up on me, I can get to my spots and rise…”
Some quick research reveals that Julius is telling the truth: Randle has emulated Leonard’s game this season to an extraordinary degree, even to the point that the best comparison to this version of Julius Randle is… that’s right, former Finals MVP, Senior Manager of Loads — the great Kawhi Leonard himself.
First and foremost, Randle and Leonard have each hit very clutch deep-right-corner bouncing-all-over backbreaking triples against the Philadelphia 76ers:
But in all seriousness, Randle and Leonard actually have nearly identical shot distribution charts this season. From each distance measured by Cleaning the Glass, they differ by no more than three percentage points! I mean, just take a look at this:
Kawhi Leonard’s shot profile, via Cleaning the Glass
Julius Randle’s shot profile, via Cleaning the Glass
(For those new to Cleaning the Glass, the colored numbers reflect a percentile per position, and since Randle and Leonard are categorized at different positions, those numbers aren’t really ripe for comparison. I am looking at the non-highlighted percentage numbers.)
Now, Randle and Leonard do play different positions, especially on the defensive end. Julius does not offer The Claw’s elite multi-positional defense (though Randle’s switchability this season has been a revelation), while Leonard cannot provide Randle’s rebounding impact (though a very good rebounder for his position). And while the shot distribution might be eerily similar, Knicks fans will be disappointed to learn that Kawhi converts the same general diet of attempts at a significantly more efficient clip.
Watching Randle this year, you can absolutely see some vestiges of Leonard’s game, specifically in what Julius described as “getting to his spot and rising.” Observe:
Those images, the slight shimmy middle before spinning back baseline, mirror one another almost precisely, and, in a truly disrespectful twist, Randle pulled Kawhi’s baseline fadeaway on the teacher himself. Indeed, that area has truly become Randle’s “spot”: Julius leads the NBA in scoring from the midrange right baseline this season.
According to StatMuse, Randle is 52-126 from that zone this year — a solid 41% clip. For context, Randle attempted just 46 shots from there all of last season — i.e., he has made more this year than he attempted all of last. The year prior in New Orleans, Julius took just 24 total shots from his newfound play space. Add it to the long list of Randle’s unforeseeable, incredible improvements this year — developing a go-to pet shot that hadn’t previously even been in his arsenal.
Like Kawhi, Julius has become a midrange maestro, equipped with a variety of jabs, pivots, dribbles, and spin moves to get to his shot whenever he wishes. Both players are particularly adept at jabbing into explosion dribbles, then rising for the jumper.
Randle’s astronomical shooting improvement this year calls Leonard to mind as well — both came out of college with reputations as poor jump shooters who would impact games primarily through physicality and athleticism (Randle offensively; Kawhi defensively). Kawhi’s incredible shooting improvement in San Antonio literally changed the perception of what type of talent development is possible once a player enters the league.
But Kawhi’s arc differs from that of Julius in notable ways. Leonard started in San Antonio as Bruce Bowen 2.0, a defender first who was stationed in the corner on offense to shoot threes and occasionally attack closeouts. As the Spurs legends aged and leaned more on their young stud, Kawhi began to explore in the midrange as well. In the first three years of his career, midrange shots comprised less than 40% of his shot attempts. In the season following the Spurs’ championship in 2014, Leonard increased that percentage from 37% to 52%, where it has hovered ever since, per Cleaning the Glass. While Kawhi pulled up into the midrange from outside, Julius reversed out from the paint.
Furthermore, for all the talk of Kawhi miraculously and suddenly becoming a shooter, the dude shot 48% on corner threes as a rookie, and 39% from three overall in his debut season. That’s basically where he has been for his entire career, with one volcanic outlier season in 2015-16 when he drilled 45% of his triples. In stark contrast, Julius Randle never took more than five corner threes in a season as a Laker, nor did he crack 30% from behind the arc in those early years. As a Pelican, he upped both his attempts and percentage to respectable levels, but still — nobody would have confused him for a shooter. Certainly, last year’s travesty of a season didn’t offer any glimpse of what was to come — Randle took the most threes of his career, but shot it at a putrid 29%. Kawhi’s development was incredible, sure, but incrementally so. Randle’s has been sudden, and nothing short of miraculous.
The primary reason Kawhi remains indisputably better than Julius, even this year (when he plays), is his exceptional efficiency at the rim. Leonard has converted 76% of his rim attempts this season, a career high, and far superior to Randle’s 60%.
That difference can be attributed at least partially to team context. According to Bball Index, Leonard operates in ideal spacing conditions — the lineups around him provide better spacing than 99% of NBA players. Randle’s lineups, in contrast, rank in just the 66th percentile in that metric. The Clippers have shot historically well from three this season, opening up clear pathways to the rim about which Julius could only fantasize.
Look at all that space afforded to Leonard on an isolation alongside the Clippers’ B-team, with Luke Kennard, Reggie Jackson, and Marcus Morris providing the spacing. Imagine what it looks like when Paul George is out there, and Serge Ibaka replaces Zubac so they can play five out! That’s a far cry from playing most of your minutes with paint-clogging centers and Elfrid Payton.
Luke Kennard, “guarding” Payton at the start of this possession, just pitches his tent in the paint, waiting for Randle to arrive. When he finally clears out, Ibaka, unworried by the threat of Mitchell Robinson, is just a step away in case of emergency. This is the type of resistance Julius consistently faces in the paint, and provides the best explanation as to why Randle has struggled finishing down there this season. Per Cleaning the Glass, this year’s 60% is Randle’s lowest conversion rate at the rim since his rookie season. The Knicks have some stuffed-up pipes, and Leon Rose is the plumber — unclog the toilet with the right acquisitions so Julius and the rim can unite again.
Julius heads to LA on Sunday to face off against his new inspiration, with playoff implications for both teams hanging in the balance. Whether he can ever reach Kawhi-like efficiency or not, by borrowing some of the deadliest elements of Leonard’s game, Randle can enter Staples Center believing he can match Leonard shot for shot. One thing is for certain: we need to stop conceptualizing Julius Randle as a bruising power-forward. At this point, he’s essentially a primary wing — kind of like Kawhi Leonard.
