One more thing on the Giannis Antetokounmpo situation

Let’s shut the door on Giannis until it’s inevitably time to open it again.

Before real hoops begin, let’s talk about Giannis one last time. Specifically, let’s talk about how the sports media world is ignoring the elephant in the room regarding any Giannis deal in the future.

“I think what people don’t realize…” is one of my favorite ways a person introduces a truly mediocre concept that people do, in fact, realize. That means it’s time to cue up Bill Simmons: 

Great stuff there, Billy. I can’t wait to hear how the quotes from that video The Ringer and Bill Simmons both signed off on was taken out of context in some capacity. Yes, we are still talking about the Shams Charania report from a couple weeks ago stating that Giannis Antetokounmpo would very much like to play in New York City, specifically for the Knickerbockers. Here’s Shams:

Ever since the NBA draft combine in mid-May, Alex Saratsis, an Octagon managing director and Antetokounmpo's U.S.-based representative, has fielded rampant interest in Antetokounmpo and conducted serious due diligence on best possible outside fits should the star and his reps push to be traded from the Bucks. Several teams were discussed internally, but one emerged as the only place Antetokounmpo wanted to play outside of Milwaukee: the New York Knicks, multiple sources with direct knowledge of the situation told ESPN. 

If there is another way of interpreting this paragraph other than Antetokounmpo wants to play in New York, please feel free to leave a comment with that alternate interpretation, because I do not see one at this moment. To avoid repeating myself too much, here I am with my good pal ShwinnyPooh discussing the report in microscopic detail:

Of course it would be wonderful for the Knicks to trade for Antetokounmpo. I’m certainly not going to be upset if it happens; however, I also think the Knicks roster is already talented enough to win a title without the Greek Freak, so is trading for him even necessary? That’s personally a more worthwhile conversion to have rather than talking about draft pick wad-blowing like Simmons and some guy in a football jersey do in the clip above. If you did not watch the minute-long video, they were talking about the Mikal Bridges trade.

Then there is Tom Haberstroh’s article, “The Superstar Trade Paradox” published shortly after Shams’ report, where he argues that Milwaukee should trade Antetokounmpo before it’s too late. Here’s Haberstroh:

The Bucks should heed the lesson of the Suns [trading for Kevin Durant] and how doubling down can doom their franchise. But one thing Phoenix did manage to do was trade Durant while he was still healthy. Antetokounmpo, who is turning 31 in December, has missed 14 games on average over the last five seasons and battled injuries in postseasons’ past. Moving a healthy Antetokounmpo sooner than later could help them extract maximum value.

This is a fair position to have on this situation. Milwaukee has $22.5 million in dead cap each year over the next five years thanks to waiving Damian Lillard and do not control their own draft pick until 2032. They have three pick swaps from today until 2032, but it’s the bad-pick side. The Bucks not owning their draft destiny over the next seven seasons along with the Knicks trading their draft destiny for Bridges is a key argument made by both Simmons and Haberstroh as to why “Giannis to the Knicks” does not make sense. After all, in the summer of 2025, the Knicks lack a large treasure chest of picks. 

Here’s Haberstroh again: 

Though the Knicks undoubtedly would love to have a player like Antetokounmpo, they don’t have an unprotected first-round pick to offer until this summer when their 2033 pick is unlocked. Like the Anthony deal in 2011, the Knicks would have to cannibalize their own team in order to meet Milwaukee’s asking price. Barring the Knicks trading Karl-Anthony Towns or OG Anunoby for longer-term assets, it’s hard to see how the Knicks and Bucks check off each other’s boxes…

…If suitors are willing to commit multiple unprotected first-round picks and a young player, the Bucks have to listen. Milwaukee might think it’s unthinkable for a small-market team to trade the face of its franchise in his prime. But the other side can bring a much brighter horizon. Just ask Sam Presti. 

I’m going to ignore the Sam Presti revisionist history for now to, as Bill Simmons would say, make a point that [Bill Simmons podcast voice] “people don’t realize” :

Giannis Antetokounmpo has the majority of the leverage in this situation because he’s extension eligible this upcoming offseason. He’s under contract this season and next season with a player option on the final year of the contract. What team is going to trade “multiple unprotected first-round picks” — which, by the way, will more than likely be at best the 20th pick in the NBA Draft since the team getting Giannis will be “title contenders” — for a player who won’t sign an extension this offseason? He presumably wants to go to an actual title contender. Not merely a nice team. With apologies to the Texans and KD stans in the room, that rules out Houston, already without their 31-year-old second-best player Fred VanVleet and relying now on Durant, Sengun, and some 20-year-olds.

This is not an argument for the New York Knicks having “the best offer” for Antetokounmpo, because they don’t. Indeed, this is a proposition – nay, a reminder – that the question of who has the best offer is irrelevant. The right question is which title contending team that Giannis would re-sign with has the best offer. There’s no chance the Bucks let Giannis walk for nothing. That doesn’t happen with superstars requesting out. 

Here’s where we remind you that Shams’ reporting indicated one team, the Knicks, fulfilled this criteria. Not a list of three or so, as we historically have seen when superstars ask out. That’s not a coincidence – there are less flashy (read: big market) title-contending destinations available right now than ever. OKC is really the only title contending team with significant assets (player or draft pick or both) to part with… and for some reason I doubt Giannis wants to end his NBA career in Oklahoma. 

This is not an advocation for the Knicks to trade for Antetokounmpo, because they already have a roster that can win the NBA Finals this season, and potentially the following two or three. If Giannis Antetokounmpo says that the only team he will sign an extension for is the Knickerbockers, then Giannis Antetokounmpo will either be a Knickerbocker or be an unrestricted free agent in the 2027 offseason. He will most likely go for one or two players of note, and an underwhelming number of draft picks (say, for example, the three first round picks the Knicks could offer beginning in the ‘26-27 offseason). You can talk about how the Knicks wasted their draft picks on Bridges, or that the Houston Rockets or Oklahoma City Thunder have the best “offers” Milwaukee would want. I don’t want to yuck anyone’s yum. But I do recommend you ask yourself: does that actually matter?

Thank you to Prez for help writing and researching this piece!