Should the Knicks use one of their protected first round picks to upgrade at the trade deadline?

The Knicks, thanks to some maneuvering this past draft, find themselves flush with protected first round picks. Should they entertain moving one or more of them at this year’s trade deadline for a roster upgrade?

As the Knicks try to stay afloat without Mitchell Robinson, it’s easy to say, “Screw this season. Don’t spend any meaningful assets on any upgrades, because by the time Robinson is back, the Knicks will be fighting for a play-in spot.” At the time of this article’s publication, the Knicks are the same distance from the fifth seed as the 11th. New York is in need of not only healthy players, but healthy players who are good. And the Knicks don’t just need healthy players who are good, they need healthy players who are good and fit the team’s style and contract preferences. 

Whatever happens with Robinson out likely won’t alter the front office’s plan this season. They have demonstrated in past offseasons that they want to win games, so why should this season be different? If the Knicks want to win this season – and they do – then they must find avenues to improve as a team in the short term without dipping into their collection of unprotected picks. So how can they take that next step? How can they get better? 

The Knicks will keep their eyes peeled for stars, but they could consider making less-heralded, yet still meaningful, personnel improvements involving at least one of the protected first-round picks they own. In an ideal world, the Knicks can make upgrades without moving any first-round picks whatsoever. If the right deal is there, they shouldn’t hesitate. The question, of course, is… what’s the right deal?

Maybe you’ve heard me repeat this on the Knicks Film School podcast or mention it on Twitter, but the credible reports that surface consistently indicate the Knicks are targeting players who will be unrestricted free agents in 2024. This implies that the Knicks want to create cap space in 2024. The Knicks would see this acquired veteran as a placeholder, only to renounce their cap hold and acquire better talent in free agency. That said, if the Knicks do not land anyone, they could keep the cap hold on the books and retain said player.

So if we use 2024 as a guiding light, we can rule out all of the 2023 free agents. Why? Any player the Knicks acquire who is a free agent would need to be re-signed, and more than likely to a deal longer than a season. Every player worth a protected first-round pick would need to be brought back by the Knicks. Otherwise, why make the trade? And if you’re making the trade, and you’re committing to re-signing these players, how does that impact your cap sheet in 2024?

The question for a player like Gary Trent Jr. – likely an unrestricted free agent this summer – isn’t necessarily “Is he worth a protected first-round pick?” It’s “Is he worth a protected first-round pick to the Knicks?” Again, if we’re taking 2024 into consideration, the answer to that question is a resounding “no.” Same can be said of a player set to hit restricted free agency.

Any trade featuring a protected first would also mean the Knicks are getting (at least) one additional year of team control. There will be 26 games remaining in the season after the trade deadline. The Knicks wouldn’t be acquiring a player for a maximum of 26 regular-season games in 2023, but for 108 regular season games in 2023 and 2024 combined. That’s a key factor in making such a decision.

Protected firsts have value, but they are best utilized for moving up in the draft, getting players on rookie contracts and acquiring certain rotation-level players. By contrast, future unprotected firsts are almost always found in trades involving stars. The benefit of accruing protected picks is it buys the Knicks time. Protected picks hold value; they just aren’t the pièce de résistance in franchise-changing moves, despite the running and incorrect narrative that existed with the Donovan Mitchell trade. 

The Knicks could use protected first-round picks to move up in the draft. Of course, the draft isn’t going to help them right now. And with the Knicks having a plethora of protected firsts, they could part with at least one now and still have ammo to move up in the draft this June.

Then there is using protected first-round picks to add players still on their rookie contracts, like what the Knicks did with Cam Reddish. This isn’t the most common way to invest a protected first, but there is a market for it for once-heralded prospects who might need a change of scenery. For example, the Magic traded a protected first for Markelle Fultz.

The Knicks could go this route again. However, perhaps they aren’t designed to be a repair shop. It’s not just about playing hard, it’s about playing well. If someone isn’t providing winning basketball for Tom Thibodeau, there’s a high likelihood they won’t play. If they’re not playing, their value drops. That’s not worth the cost of a protected first-round pick.

If New York targets a player on his rookie contract, he’ll likely need to be a free agent in 2025 or 2026. That’s because, as stated previously, players set to be restricted free agents in 2023 or 2024 carry cap holds that would cut into the Knicks’ cap space in 2024, should they choose to operate under the salary cap then. For context, the 30th pick in the 2020 draft was Desmond Bane. He will likely be extended by Memphis, but if he isn’t, his cap hold will be $11.5 million in 2024. 

Compare that to a player in the 2025 restricted free agency class like Chris Duarte ($5.9 million), Moses Moody ($5.8 million), or Isaiah Jackson ($4.4 million), and you’re saving a good amount of money. The Knicks could trade for a 2026 restricted free agent, but that would mean a team is giving up on a player that it drafted last June, which feels quite unlikely.

This brings us to the final player: the veteran.

The Knicks shouldn’t be afraid to relinquish protected first-round picks for very-good-but-not-elite talent. Last year, they were reportedly interested in trading Evan Fournier and the Mavericks’ 2023 first-round pick for Caris LeVert. I didn’t like the idea of trading for LeVert, and I’m still glad they didn’t make the move, even with Fournier riding the pine now. 

Additionally, the Knicks had interest in CJ McCollum, who went to the Pelicans. I was uncomfortable with New York acquiring McCollum, as he was 30 years old and the Knicks didn’t have many first-round picks to spare. Had they owned more protected firsts, I would have been a bit more at ease with targeting McCollum. Now they do own more.

I approve of the general mindset of trading at least one protected first and matching salary for a much better player, even if that player isn’t a “star.” Said player just needs to fit with your timeline. For context, 26-year-old Jalen Brunson is the Knicks’ timeline. LeVert would have fit with New York’s timeline, but his talent and moving Fournier weren’t worth parting with a first-round pick. McCollum’s skills are far better than LeVert’s, but he wouldn’t have fit with New York’s timeline very well.

Two recent offseason trades that are paying off nicely involve the acquisitions of Jerami Grant and Kevin Huerter. The Blazers dealt a protected first that was not their own to Detroit. Meanwhile, the Kings traded their own first-round pick set to convey in the future, but slapped some protections on it. The Huerter trade looks better than the Grant one, but both deals have paid dividends to the teams that were looking for an upgrade.

There is often more action in the offseason, but good veterans can often be had at the deadline. The Knicks had a better record post-Marcus Morris trade than pre-Morris trade, but they raised the white flag before COVID hit. The Magic entered a full rebuild when they dealt Nikola Vucevic, Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier. The Pacers tanked for the first time . . . ever (?) last year. The Trail Blazers called it a year when it was clear Damian Lillard wouldn’t return. The one thing all of these teams had in common is that they were preparing to enter a tank, for the rest of the year or for longer.

So which teams might call it quits this year? 

• The Jazz are treading water and could part with 2024 free agent Malik Beasley. 

• Everyone is paying attention to the Raptors, but their two most likely trade candidates (Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr.) are 2023 free agents. OG Anunoby, who holds a 2024 player option, could be dealt as well. 

• The Wizards already moved Rui Hachimura, who is a 2023 free agent. This likely takes Kyle Kuzma, who holds a 2023 player option, off the table.

• The Bulls could pull the plug on their season to increase the odds of retaining their draft pick this year, but they’re also competing for a play-in spot. Would they move Alex Caruso? Would he fit the profile if the Knicks want that sweet, sweet cap space in 2024, since he’s likely under contract through 2025?

Outside of those five teams, most teams are out of contention for Victor Wembanyama or already in the league’s basement.

Speaking of teams in the cellar, how much might Eric Gordon cost in a trade? Alec Burks is not a trade option for the Knicks due to CBA restrictions, but Bojan Bogdanović is. Are the Knicks interested in taking on Bogdanović’s guaranteed money in 2024, whereas Gordon will be a free agent entering the 2024 offseason? 

It’s worth nothing that not all protected firsts are created equal. I don’t particularly want the Knicks to trade one for someone like Gordon, but I’d understand the move – depending on which pick it would be. For example, the current values of the Bucks pick and the Wizards pick that the Knicks own are quite different. I would be against trading the Wizards pick for Gordon, whereas the Bucks pick would be an easier pill to swallow. Of course, only time will tell. I also wonder if Gordon will even net a protected first anyway, given how many players appear to be on the trade block this season.

The opposing argument to the Knicks making such a deal is that other teams only did it because they had star talent around them already. Why trade at least one first-round pick for a player when the ceiling is low to begin with?

Well, whether you agree with the overall direction or not, the Knicks are eager to raise their floor this season. The thinking is if a team can raise its floor, it can ultimately help raise its ceiling. 

The 2018-19 Clippers, Nets, and Heat all attempted to raise their floor and then raised their ceiling the following offseason with major acquisitions. The issue is the Knicks do not have a marquee free agent available to sign with them this offseason. 

That is, however, what the 2024 offseason could be. Plans can also change. If a player the Knicks would want to target in 2024 free agency becomes available via trade between now and the 2024 deadline, and the Knicks acquire said player, then they may no longer look to be a cap space team. In fact, one player who might cause them to change course is Anunoby. The Knicks wouldn’t acquire Anunoby and then kick him to the curb. They would then have to deal with his cap hold. Until that happens, though, we should anticipate that 2024 is the plan, given New York’s reported intentions.

If you don’t see protected firsts as assets in a star trade, you might as well use them for good, veteran talent that helps a team focused on winning try to win more games. Additionally, the Knicks wouldn’t be using this draft equity for a rental, but instead for someone who can help them through at least next season as well.

The front office believes that the ultimate stepping stone to getting better talent will be winning games. What’s more, they’re comfortable with their abilities drafting outside of the lottery anyway. With Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle in the fold, the Knicks won’t tank. So if their goal is to be good, and they have excess protected first-round picks that aren’t helpful in a star trade, they should use them to upgrade the team in another way. Using at least one protected first to acquire a very good player and make your team better can help you in both the short run and the long run. It all comes down to which player(s) the Knicks would acquire and with which pick(s).