What is the Leon Rose-led Knicks’ “Process,” and is it too soon to judge it fully?
A victim of a laundry list of transgressions by front offices prior to his arrival, Leon Rose unexpectedly found immediate success last season before a disappointing season this year. But is it too soon to start passing judgement on a “process” that has barely begun to take shape?
It was following another pitiful loss by the Knicks — this time at home to the Oklahoma City Thunder — when I received a direct message on Twitter from Conrad Rothbaum of Knicks Illustrated. Expecting a message from Conrad isn’t exactly a rare occurrence for me, as we converse daily. Yet it’s what Conrad wrote that got me thinking.
I think we should trade assets for a star to your point
It’s getting fucking stupid how little we’ve built and how long it’s taken to build so little
I think the process Sixers and Thunder really gaslit the whole NBA with their success
As year two of the Leon Rose era concludes next week, there has been growing cynicism among a portion of the fanbase due to a lackluster 2022 trade deadline. While the first season was a wonderful surprise, the second year has been unforgiving and relentless. This isn’t to say that Conrad is a cynic. Building for what seems like ages with little to show for it is frustrating, yet that frustration transcends front offices.
With year three approaching, there is a sense of disappointment as Knicks nation turns its lonely eyes to Tankathon (woo, woo, woo). Yet instead of debating the pros and the cons of tanking in general, I want us to travel back in time and explore how the two teams Conrad mentioned — the Philadelphia 76ers and the Oklahoma City Thunder — arrived at rock bottom.
Of course, this is hardly rock bottom for the Knicks. The Sixers engaged in a multi-year tank. The Thunder are once again tanking across multiple seasons. The Knicks, however, are not tanking. Well, the Knicks are not tanking by design. In fact, tanking has little to do with the subject matter. By analyzing how the Sixers and the Thunder entered their rebuilds, we can compare their trajectories to that of the Knicks’. Because while these teams have leveraged their pasts to advance themselves in the present, the Knicks have failed to do that up until recently.
This is not about apologizing for the front office or excusing them for missteps, nor is this a vehicle for lavishing the group with praise. At the end of the day, their tenure will be judged on results. It is still imperative to convey how far away this organization was a mere two years ago in comparison with other teams, such as Philadelphia and Oklahoma City. And despite the revolving door of past regimes, the Knicks have a front office that, after all this time, does not appear to be pulling a door that actually pushes.
If I’m being candid, I don’t believe the 2021 free agency was really that bad. It certainly wasn’t great in hindsight, but everything feels worse in the heat of the moment, and there’s a way to right the ship this summer. Julius Randle regressing to levels he hadn’t seen since his “second” year in the NBA hurts. A low-risk move bringing in Kemba Walker has turned into a high-risk one, with reports Wednesday indicating the Knicks will now sit him the rest of the year and have to move his expiring contract this coming offseason. Additionally, losing Derrick Rose and (to a lesser extent) Nerlens Noel to injury — which opened the door for point guard Alec Burks instead of more Immanuel Quickley and Miles McBride minutes, as well as playing Taj Gibson instead of Obi Toppin or Jericho Sims — is another issue that has helped torpedo this season.
I recognize that other fans find greater fault with some or all of the players the Knicks have acquired over the last eight months. And what has gone awry has been further compounded by adding Cameron Reddish and not trading any vets at the deadline. It’s a cluttered mess at the moment, and without knowing a clear direction, fans are left in the dark. After years of disappointment, fans may be wondering how to “trust the process” when they’re not even sure what the process is.
When Sam Hinkie took over the Sixers in 2013 to begin his own process, he inherited a roster that had a low ceiling and a high floor. The Sixers were like a flawed car that could be used locally, but you don’t want to take it on a cross-country roadtrip for fear of it breaking down in the middle of Nebraska. So what did Hinkie do? He stripped that car to its very foundation, selling off pieces to the highest bidder. Hinkie traded away players like Jrue Holiday, Evan Turner, and Thaddeus Young. The goal was to make more money off the parts than the car itself was worth, then invest that money elsewhere. The direction was also clear: the Sixers were going to lose games. In fact, they were going to lose a lot of them.
Meanwhile, the other Sam — Sam Presti — is currently overseeing another rebuild. The first rebuild in the mid-aughts became a smashing success thanks to his team securing three top five picks, with each one turning into a future MVP, plus trading Ray Allen in 2007 for recent fifth overall pick, Jeff Green. And while OKC did not make it to the top of the mountain, the team was in contention year after year. Here’s a look at how things have largely shaken out since the Thunder’s 2011 Finals appearance:
Financial restraint led to dealing James Harden to the Houston Rockets.
A handful of years later, the NBA’s salary cap spiked and Kevin Durant joined the Golden State Warriors, leaving the Thunder with nothing in return.
Serge Ibaka turned into Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, and that same package turned into Paul George.
The Los Angeles Clippers secured Kawhi Leonard and then traded a haul to OKC for George, with Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and LA’s future picks going in exchange.
Russell Westbrook turned into Chris Paul and assets.
Gallinari was signed and traded to the Atlanta Hawks, giving the Thunder a large traded player exception.
Chris Paul was flipped to the Phoenix Suns for Kelly Oubre and assets.
Kelly Oubre was traded to the Warriors, giving OKC another TPE.
This masterclass in asset accumulation is less like selling off your car for parts and more like acquiring magic beans, then selling the beanstalks to loggers who pay you handsomely, and then you manage to use that money to buy more magic beans. The Thunder were content losing games from 2006 to 2009. They remain content losing games now.
By now we’ve seen how two teams have navigated using good talent to their advantage. What’s the story with the Knicks?
Once again, the past for New York has often been one of two options over the last 20 years: failing to be good but refusing to be terrible on purpose, or building a team too bad to be good and not good enough to maximize its lottery odds. There are three ways to add talent: the draft, free agency, and the trade market. How have the Knicks handled each?
Draft picks
Let’s begin with 2010. We could dive even further than that, but 2010 feels like a justifiable starting point.
New York did not have a first round pick in 2010, 2012, 2014, or 2016.
Iman Shumpert was selected in 2011, and while there was some hope there, Shumpert tore his ACL at the end of his rookie season and was eventually traded to the Cleveland Cavaliers, where he became a world champion. No one and nothing New York received in that trade brought back anything of significance, as all remnants of such a deal are gone.
Tim Hardaway Jr. was drafted in 2013 before being dealt on draft night in 2015 for Jerian Grant. A year later, Grant was traded with Jose Calderon and Robin Lopez for Derrick Rose, Justin Holiday, and a 2017 second round pick. That pick turned into Damyean Dotson, who left in free agency after his rookie contract was up and returned to the Knicks when COVID was peaking this season due to Omicron. Holiday re-signed with the Bulls in free agency the next season. After a tumultuous season in New York, Rose bounced around the league before being traded back to the Knicks in February 2020.
One of the two key components in getting Rose back was Dennis Smith Jr., who was acquired in 2018 when the Knicks traded 2015 draft pick, Kristaps Porzingis. Also traded with Porzingis was Tim Hardaway Jr. (who had joined the Knicks again thanks to a fat contract offer), Courtney Lee, and Trey Burke. In return, the Knicks received two future first round picks, Smith Jr. (traded), DeAndre Jordan (left for Brooklyn after the season ended), and Wesley Matthews (bought out).
The 2017 draft pick, Frank Ntilikina, eventually walked for nothing. Kevin Knox, the 2018 draft pick, was traded alongside a future protected first round pick for Cameron Reddish, Solomon Hill (waived), and a future second round pick. Fortunately, Mitchell Robinson was also drafted in 2018 — albeit in the second round — yet he enters the 2022 offseason as an unrestricted free agent unless the Knicks can come to an extension with him before the start of free agency.
So to summarize, New York’s nine possible first round picks between 2010 and 2018 have led to the 2021 Mavericks pick (Quentin Grimes), a protected 2023 Dallas first round pick, a 2024 Detroit second round pick (via Los Angeles Clippers) and a 2025 Brooklyn second round pick (via Atlanta). Additionally, the Knicks flipped Smith Jr. (and an additional 2021 Charlotte second round pick) for Derrick Rose. That is, without a doubt, the worst way to leverage the draft of any team in the league over that span of time. This failure is a direct result of what having five different regimes over a nine-season span will do to a team.
So yeah, the Knicks had to start fresh with their first round picks, and that seems to have begun with RJ Barrett in 2019. The jury is still out on the first round picks made by the Knicks since then, yet that can become clearer with more playing time.
Free agency and trades
The Knicks’ inability to draft meaningful talent those years and their lack of available picks meant the best way to find success has been via free agency and the trade market. When it comes to free agency, the problem is that you’re often overpaying for talent and/or paying for older players, as players don’t want to sign with a team that isn’t making progress and restricted free agents are, well, restricted in terms of where they can go. And regarding trades, you need to give up talent to get talent. New York’s inability to have talent impacted their decisions for years.
Free agency should serve at least one of two purposes. You sign talent that can win you games and can be used in a future trade if need be.
The 2010 offseason started off with a panicked signing of Amar’e Stoudemire, on a contract with no insurance for Amar’e’s infamously faulty knees, in an attempt to lure LeBron James to New York with Stoudemire as a running mate. He of course signed with Miami. The Knicks then signed-and-traded David Lee to the Golden State Warriors, with New York receiving Ronny Turiaf (traded along with a second round pick after one year), Anthony Randolph (traded for Carmelo Anthony), Kelenna Azubuike (never played for the Knicks), and two second round picks (traded to Denver).
In 2011, the Knicks signed-and-traded for Tyson Chandler, who won a Defensive Player of the Year, was named to the All-NBA Third Team, and became an All-Star. Chandler and Raymond Felton were later traded to the Mavericks for Jose Calderon (traded for what is now nothing), Samuel Dalembert (who never played for a NBA team afterwards), Shane Larkin (left the Knicks after one season), and the picks that became Cleanthony Early (two seasons in New York) and Thanasis Antetokounmpo (two games in New York).
The 2012 offseason was all about depth for what would become the winningest Knicks team since the 1996-97 season. The 2013 offseason saw the return of a few players as well. The only thing the Knicks have as a result of the signings those two years is the draft rights to Ognjen Jaramaz.
The Knicks re-signed Anthony in 2014 to a contract that included a no-trade clause. Anthony was later traded for Enes Kanter (bought out), Doug McDermott (part of a trade for Emmanuel Mudiay, who left for nothing), and the second round pick that became Mitchell Robinson.
2015 free agency was a swing and a miss with Greg Monroe (which turned out to be okay!), as the Knicks pivoted to Robin Lopez (traded in the Rose deal a year later), Aaron Afflalo (did not return after the season), Derrick Williams (did not return after the season), Kevin Seraphin (did not return after the season), and signed-and-traded for Kyle O’Quinn (declined 2018 player option and did not return).
Next came the dreadful 2016 free agency highlighted by Joakim Noah (still being paid today), Courtney Lee (traded to Dallas), Brandon Jennings (did not return after the season), and Lance Thomas (spent another three seasons in New York).
The following year, the Knicks brought back Hardaway Jr. (traded to Dallas) and re-signed Ron Baker, this time to a two-year, $8.8 million deal. Baker was waived the next season to clear a spot for Allonzo Trier, who — like Baker — is no longer in the NBA.
Zero cap space in 2018 meant using the mid-level exception on Mario Hezonja (did not return), while Noah Vonleh received a minimum contract before leaving the Knicks the following offseason.
So nine seasons worth of free agency eventually produced Mitchell Robinson and the draft rights to Ognjen Jaramaz. That’s just downright pitiful.
The good news? Things have largely improved since then.
2019 was a swing and a miss for stars, with the Knicks signing Julius Randle, Marcus Morris, Bobby Portis, Wayne Ellington, Taj Gibson, Reggie Bullock, and Elfrid Payton as consolation prizes. Only Randle and Gibson remain on the team, with Morris being traded for a 2020 first round pick (Immanuel Quickley), a 2021 second round pick via Detroit (Miles McBride and Rokas Jokubaitis thanks to a 2021 draft night trade down), and Moe Harkless (did not return).
And finally, of all the players the Knicks signed in 2020 and 2021, the only one who has been traded thus far is Austin Rivers. The Rivers trade turned into the pick that became Jericho Sims.
The goal here isn’t to remind you of how painful the past has been, but instead to provide a more detailed explanation for why the present feels challenging. It’s why the Knicks acquiring Ed Davis and two future second round picks from Utah, only to then flip Davis for two young players (waived) and an additional second round pick from Minnesota felt like a masterclass. Even though Steve Mills and Scott Perry played a role in some of the good things listed above, it’s tough to remember the last time Knicks fans had seen a sequence that was anywhere near as creative.
In the almost three years since 2019, the Knicks used free agency to help them acquire a player who made the All-NBA team in Randle, as well as Gibson, Quickley, McBride, Jokubaitis, and Sims. While only time will truly tell the eventual outcome of these players, we can see that things are at the very least trending in the right direction.
And again, while the team’s payroll feels bad at the moment, that can all change once the salary cap resets on July 1, 2022. Kemba Walker will soon be on an expiring contract at a time where the free agent class this summer is one of the more lackluster ones we’ve seen in a while. Derrick Rose, Alec Burks, and Nerlens Noel could effectively be on expiring deals as they all have 2023-24 team options. If the Knicks were winning, these contracts wouldn’t feel bloated and ugly. But since the Knicks aren’t winning, everyone and everything looks worse.
Think back to what the Knicks have done in the past by clearing cap space for players who didn’t show up. A player like Jalen Brunson, for example, certainly differs from that of LeBron James in 2010 or Kevin Durant in 2019. Yet we’ve seen this organization put the cart before the horse far too frequently. If the Knicks can extract more value from the veterans on the roster this summer than they would have at this past trade deadline, it will have been worthwhile in the long run. It won’t make up for this season — only acquiring a star this summer can do that — but if the organization decides to focus further on developing the youth after the All-Star break, we can all sleep a little better at night. My concern is that despite the daunting schedule ahead, the Knicks being “only” 3.5 games back of the play-in tournament means more of the same until they’re officially eliminated from contention.
I have seen firsthand what kind of negative impact previous front offices have had on fans. After years of mistreatment, the emotional damage will never truly heal. Even when things go well — and they will, eventually, go well — we will constantly be looking over our respective shoulders, skeptical of moves working out for this team.
Sam Hinkie’s first trade was dealing Jrue Holiday for what became the sixth pick in the 2013 draft and the 10th pick in the 2014 draft. Sam Presti’s first trade was dealing Ray Allen for the player drafted fifth overall in 2007. Teams like the Sixers and the Thunder used quality talent that they already had in the present to set themselves up in the future.
The Knicks had one player who was dealt for a significant haul in Porzingis, and such a transaction was done before Leon Rose even arrived in New York. Rose inherited a roster of Barrett after a bad rookie season, Randle looking terrible, and Robinson coming off the bench, partially due to seniority with DeAndre Jordan and also because of Robinson’s propensity for fouling. New York was getting nothing from Ntilikina, Knox, or Smith Jr. This was one of the lowest points in the post-Melo era.
There is a difference between saying a front office is good in comparison to previous ones and saying a front office is good on its own. With that said, this front office is paying for the sins of previous regimes. Fans are conflating a leadership team that’s about to celebrate its second anniversary on the job with a franchise that has had four winning seasons since 2001. We can consider this context and still be candid that multiple parties — the front office, the coaching, and the players — share blame for how this season has unfolded.
The 2020-21 Knicks brought me an immense amount of joy. The expectations that were created from it for the following season sometimes make me regret that the Knicks even made the playoffs. While I do believe that this year is a stepping stone for a greater future in the long term, this still feels like a waste of a season. It feels like all the goodwill that had been built up has depleted in a three-month span. The beauty of it, though, is this is only one season. After all, it only took one trip to the playoffs after an eight-year drought for the tides to change. Rome wasn’t built in a day, and the Knicks haven’t been built properly in years.
So instead, I choose to look towards the future. As long as New York uses the draft to its advantage and converts free agent signings into quality assets, the front office can put the Knicks in position for success. It’s the time between now and then that feels like purgatory. What fans may not realize is that there are around 20 teams that are in purgatory at any given point in the NBA. You have your collection of contenders, your grouping of tankers, and every other team in the league.
As far as I see it, new ground was broken two years ago next week. In the meantime, the front office can sell fans on a plan that involves developing the youth, securing a top-10 pick, acquiring a starting-caliber point guard (likely via free agency or trade), and what is shaping up to be a new head coach. Not long after, the star hunt should hopefully come to a head. The reclamation of a new era can begin if the organization allows it. The front office just needs to remember to keep pushing doors that do, indeed, push.
