As Francisco Álvarez goes, so go the Mets
That could be very, very good news for the Amazins & their fans
Remove a stretch of 14 losses in 17 games from June to early July and the New York Mets are on a 106-win pace and your runaway National League East winners. You can’t, natch, so instead they appear destined for a months-long neck-and-neck sprint with the Phillies. Teams don’t go 3-14 for one reason, nor bounce back with 13 wins in 19 games because of one. But the national pastime is rich in parallels, and one in particular has existed throughout this franchise’s history.
For 64 years, the Mets’ good years and bad are split almost exactly in half. When they’ve stunk they’re Baskin Robbins, a dizzying array of flavors of losing: lovably in the ‘60s; depressingly in the post-Tom Seaver trade ‘70s; the ‘90s were so bad they inspired a book called “The Worst Team Money Could Buy” – when they weren’t spraying bleach at reporters, threatening to “show one the Bronx” and masturbating in the bullpen mid-game.
The early 2000s saw one free agent or trade bust after another; the late ‘00s were cheaper but no less sad; the Jason Bay signing was a war crime; and the final years of the Wilpons like “A Christmas Carol” if Scrooge were even cheaper and never visited by ghosts.
But whenever the Mets are good, one parallel persists: they’re strong behind the plate. From Jerry Grote (two-time All-Star in New York) to Gary Carter (four-time) to Todd Hundley (two) to Roger Clemens’ daddy (seven) to Paul Lo Duca (one) to Travis d’Arnaud (an All-Star eventually, though after he left Queens), when the Metropolitans have been worth a damn their backstops were exceptional (honorable mention to four-time All-Star John Stearns, a bright spot in a dark time; we can’t control the world we’re born into, only do our best with the one we’re given).
So what of Francisco Álvarez?
A broken bone in his hand spring training cost Álvarez six weeks. Two months into his return, the Mets sent him down to AAA Syracuse to work on his game both at and behind the plate. Some young players would sneer at being demoted after hitting 25 home runs in under 400 at-bats, like he did two years ago. Especially if their last swing before that demotion ended in a 451-foot bomb.
But the Mets have been high on Álvarez for years, not only because he’s repeatedly exceeded expectations but because of his maturity handling those times he’s come up short. He reported to Syracuse earlier than required, an encouraging sign, as were the seven dingers he hit his last six games there. The Citi Field faithful gave him a standing ovation his first at-bat back in the bigs. Team president David Stearns can dig it.
“He understood and recognized the way he performed at the major league level on both sides of the ball was not who he was,” Stearns said. “And he took the opportunity away from the bright lights and cameras and pressure of the major league environment to work and improved very rapidly. This happened faster than I would have envisioned when we optioned him.”
As is the case with most catchers, the basic numbers never tell the whole story. Heading into yesterday’s game in San Francisco, Álvarez is hitting an unremarkable .243 – a point above the team’s average, though nothing to write home about. His slugging and OPS have dropped every year since his rookie campaign. In a lineup featuring multiple future Hall of Famers, how meaningful can the catcher from the bottom third of the lineup matter?
Turns out a lot. In 22 Met wins, he’s slashed .312/.369/.506 (.876 OPS) with four home runs, seven extra-base hits and 12 RBI; in 16 losses, .143/.273/.161 (.433 OPS), no homers, one little bitty extra-base hit and one little bitty RBI. When the Mets win, he’s a star; when they lose, he struggles like Ishtar. For most teams for most of MLB history, catchers have been like rectal exams: everyone needs one, but they’re rarely flaunted; you stick them near the bottom of the lineup and hope they don’t cause any contamination. Álvarez is not hiding down low in the lineup. He’s lurking.
The Mets don’t have the ace-heavy starting rotation the Phillies do – to be fair, nor did they last year, when they upset Pennsylvania’s lone Major League ballclub in the playoffs. But injuries to Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea plus the apotheosis of the Phils’ Cristopher Sánchez, they can’t assume past as precedent. And while the top half of New York’s lineup is about as good as it gets, the “about” is necessary because the Dodgers still feature three MVPs at the top of theirs and will probably add three more next offseason.
To win their first World Series since 1986, the Mets will likely have to out-balance the league’s best. That’s where Álvarez can be the difference. 129 of his 133 at-bats have come hitting 7th, 8th, or 9th. When leading off an inning, he’s batting .292 with an on-base of .370, turning the batting order over to give Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo more shots with ducks on the pond. Álvarez saves his best for last, as his slash lines every three innings show:
INNINGS 1-3: .222/.333/.361 (.694 OPS)
INNINGS 4-6: .167/.286/.238 (.524 OPS)
INNINGS 7-9: .314/.361/.451 (.815 OPS)
In the tradition of great Met catchers, Álvarez has shown two-way excellence. While the two-time league leader in passed balls still has work to do there, he’s thrown out 35% of attempted base stealers this season, light years ahead of the 13% and 17% he did the past two seasons. If he sustains that rate, he and Luis Torrens give the Mets two catchers their opponents go into every series knowing best not to test.
He’s just also so freaking cool. Power is cool and maturity is hot, but nothing is cooler (or hotter) than a catcher lifting his mask to reveal eyeblack in the shape of two crosses. He’s like if Kylo Ren played baseball, without all the emo. Carter was a glass of cold milk incarnate: wholesome, comforting, warm (the man, not the milk). Piazza was a rock star at a position usually manned by dudes who look like roadies. Lo Duca gave strong nothing-stops-this-guy vibes, to where it emerged he also didn’t brake for marital vows or girls half his age. At a position that’s literally and figuratively usually faceless, Álvarez is easy on the eyes whether slugging or smoldering. Or welcoming a new baby girl.
Hopefully we’ll be looking at him a lot between now and October. Despite him missing nearly weeks this year, Met catchers are tied for the eighth-most productive in baseball. A healthy Álvarez delivering on both ends gives the Mets quality and depth at a position many teams struggle to find one guy they can trust. Odds are at some point this postseason, a late-and-close game will come down to whether the bottom of the lineup can get it back to the top. That Álvarez can is obvious to anyone watching him play. That he can do that damage himself, without needing to pass the buck to the big-bucks earners, could not only bring the Mets their first hardware in 40 years, but the dawn of a new Golden Age.
