Breaking up the wings might save the Knicks’ season
The data suggests that the Knicks’ three wings work best when they’re not together on the floor.
This first-round series between the Knicks and Hawks has been close for two reasons: the Knicks collapsing in Game 2 at home and their starting lineup getting destroyed in Game 3. Their starting lineup played a season-high 51.6% of the team’s possessions in Game 2. Over the last two games, that number has plummeted to 18% in Game 3 and 24.7% in Game 4.
That’s not a shocking development. Over the last two games vs. the Hawks in Atlanta, the starting lineup of Jalen Brunson, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Karl-Anthony Towns has struggled to a 95.1 offensive rating (ORTG), 122 defensive rating (DRTG), and -26.8 net rating (NETRTG) across 41 possessions. The starting lineup was positive through the first two games of the series with a 120.7 ORTG, 116.7 DRTG, and +4 NETRTG.
The only other sub-25% usages of the Knicks’ starting lineup in games where there either wasn’t an injury mid-game or there wasn’t a blowout since it reestablished itself as the starting lineup on Dec. 5 were Christmas Day vs. the Cavs (15.8%), March 8 vs. the Lakers (17.7%), and Jan. 11 vs. the Blazers (20.2%) — Hart’s first game back from an injury.
Mike Brown proved in Game 4 against the Hawks that a season-altering starting lineup change wasn’t needed for the Knicks in their 114-98 win, as they posted a 122.6 ORTG, 105.4 DRTG, and +17.2 NETRTG... and their defense was even better than that DRTG shows because they had a sub-100 DRTG before they emptied their bench with 3:35 left.
Brown has realized that he needs to play his three starting wings (Bridges, Hart, Anunoby) way less together than he has been. Through four games in this series, that trio has posted a 109.2 ORTG, 117.8 DRTG, and -8.7 NETRTG across 153 possessions together vs. the Hawks. With two or fewer of those guys on the floor this series, the Knicks have a 119.1 ORTG, 102.7 DRTG, and +16.5 NETRTG across 230 possessions.
This has been an ongoing issue for the two years that this trio has played together. Since the start of last season, the “Wingstop” trio has a +1 NETRTG in 5,995 possessions together. With just two or fewer of those guys on the floor in that span, the Knicks have a +7 NETRTG... and that’s a gaudy sample size of 12,119 possessions.
Funnily enough, Bridges/OG/Hart have played 2,540 possessions together since the start of last year’s playoffs, sporting a 117 ORTG and 117 DRTG. Not a positive, not a negative, just a neutral 0 NETRTG. The Knicks have a +7.4 NETRTG in all other combos (7,597 possessions) since the start of last postseason.
It’ll be interesting to see how Brown handles his minutes distribution in Game 5 in New York, but Games 3 and 4 likely tell us we’ll continue seeing less of Mikal Bridges. In the last two games vs. Atlanta, Bridges played 20:32 (Game 3) and 19:19 (Game 4).
Excluding his streak-extending season finales vs. Charlotte and Brooklyn over the past two seasons, he’s registered fewer than 26 minutes in non-blowout games just three times in his two seasons with the Knicks: Two of those games are in this series and the other was March 15 vs. the Warriors, when he logged just 21:23.
As anyone who watched the game knows, the Knicks let Karl-Anthony Towns cook in Game 4. On the surface, you’ll see KAT had a triple-double performance with an easy 20 points, 10 rebounds, and 10 assists in only 29:19 of action on 71.6% true shooting (TS%). The Knicks had a 125.9 ORTG and +25.9 NETRTG with KAT on the floor in Game 4.
Towns joined elite company with his performance, becoming the fourth different Knick player to record a triple-double in the playoffs. He joined the likes of teammate Josh Hart, as well as Hall of Famers Walt “Clyde” Frazier and Dick McGuire.
According to Shax in his latest Substack column, KAT had his highest true usage of the season in Game 4 at 60%. As Shax lays it out, True Usage is an all-encompassing metric that “captures a player's full offensive involvement, scoring rate, passing rate, turnovers, potential assists, and passes that generate free throws, filling the gaps that traditional usage percentage leaves behind.”
The whole point of Brown’s offense is to have KAT touch the ball as much as possible and to be a hub for the rest of the offense. This series vs. the Hawks has especially shown how lethal he can be as an offensive force.
The Knicks are in the driver’s seat to salvage this series and advance to the next round. They’ve led for 90% of the time in three of four games. They’ve led overall in 71.7% of minutes played in this series and haven’t trailed in 76% of minutes played this series. They have a +6.2 NETRTG for the entire series vs. the Hawks.
They need wins in two of their next three games – and they’ve retaken home court advantage after their sweat-free Game 4 victory in Atlanta. Time will tell if they’ll slip up once again, causing them to fail to advance out of the first round for the first time in the Jalen Brunson Era. However, they’ve shown to be the better team in this series and they’re favored to win it.
