The Knicks need more from Jalen Brunson in Game 4 and beyond of the Finals
Could pairing Jalen Brunson with another small guard be the key to winning a title?
The Knicks’ offense as a whole in Game 3 of the Finals was its best output in any of their three games so far, posting a 120.7 offensive rating (ORTG). However, that’s mostly boosted up by a dominant offensive performance in the second quarter vs. the Spurs.
In the second quarter of Game 3, the Knicks scored 42 points across 23 offensive possessions, totaling a 182.6 ORTG and outscoring the Spurs by 18 points. In the other three quarters, the Knicks had 69 points on 69 offensive possessions (100 ORTG), and were outscored by 22 points combined in those three quarters.
Jalen Brunson has had an uneasy start on the Finals stage through three games. The Knicks are scoring just 0.75 points per possession (PPP) on Brunson isolation possessions in the Finals (1.14 PPP through first three rounds). He’s shooting just 42.9% from the field on isolation plays, compared to 52.2% through the first three rounds.
With Victor Wembanyama existing on the floor for the Spurs, this was always going to be a series where Brunson needed to thrive with pull-up shots (and mid-range shots). He has definitely not done that.
As I pointed out following Game 2, the Knicks had been thriving with passing the ball during their win streak and had even reached 301 passes in their Game 2 win. However, as Sam Quinn of CBS Sports pointed out, they weren’t moving the ball like they had previously during their Game 3 loss. They made 270 passes in their Game 3 defeat, which is closer to their average during the first three games vs. the Hawks (257.3 passes per game)... before they flipped the switch and went on their run.
Over the last two series, we’ve seen the ball in Brunson’s hands longer (9.6 minutes per game against Cleveland), but his average dribbles per touch more closely mirrors what it was through the first three games against Atlanta.
He held the ball for 10 minutes per game and dribbled the ball for almost six seconds per touch in the first three games vs. the Hawks. In the Finals vs. the Spurs, he’s held the ball for 9.3 minutes per game and dribbled the ball for 5.32 seconds per touch, which is his highest at any point since the first three games against Atlanta.
According to the ALL NBA Podcast, Brunson was pressured in the backcourt on 63% of possessions in Game 3. That’s going to exhaust Brunson, as we’ve seen. The adjustment for the Knicks is to either have one of their wings bring the ball up... or insert another ball handler.
As Ben Ritholtz of Knicks Film School mentioned on Twitter, Jose Alvarado hasn’t seemed to be perturbed by the Spurs’ ball-pressure tactics. And the numbers back up the eye test, as well. According to Caitlin Cooper of Basketball, She Wrote on Twitter, the Knicks scored 1.46 PPP in Game 3 vs. the Spurs when Alvarado was bringing the ball up the floor and the Spurs were applying pressure to the ball handler bringing the ball up.
Ever since his acquisition at the trade deadline, Alvarado has been a consistent spark plug for the Knicks on both sides of the ball — despite his below-average scoring.
This season, the Knicks have flourished in lineups with both Brunson and Alvarado, posting a 120.4 ORTG, 105.3 defensive rating (DRTG), and +15.2 net rating (NETRTG) in 230 offensive possessions of the two sharing the floor. However, the two guards haven’t shared the floor for a single possession in the 2026 playoffs.
In the Knicks’ three regular-season matchups (including the NBA Cup Final) against the Spurs, they demolished San Antonio when they paired Brunson with another small point guard (Tyler Kolek or Alvarado). In 40 such possessions, the Knicks had a 147.5 ORTG and outscored the Spurs by 35 points across 40 offensive possessions.
Moving forward, the Knicks have to win the Brunson minutes. That has as much to do with Brunson himself as the players on the floor around him. They’re lucky to have a series lead heading into Game 4 with how poorly they’ve been in Brunson’s minutes, but you just can’t expect that trend to continue and to win the series with how aggressive the splits have been looking through three games.
Moving on... in the first two games of the series, Karl-Anthony Towns had at least 60 touches and almost 50 front court touches in each game. However, in their Game 3 defeat, we saw the Knicks being unable to get KAT the necessary touches... and it didn’t really matter if Brunson or Alvarado was his point guard.
KAT had only 45 total touches and just 30 front court touches in the Game 3 loss to the Spurs. That’s a complete shift from how they’ve been using him as a hub.
A lot of that had to do with Stephon Castle leading the Spurs in half-court matchups defending KAT in Game 3. According to NBA tracking data, Castle was tracked as the primary defender on KAT for 16.9 partial possessions in the game.
The Knicks scored 1.12 PPP on those possessions, but KAT when guarded by Castle only had two shots — a put-back layup late in the third quarter and a missed 3-pointer that rattled in and out late in the fourth quarter. That’s just not going to cut it.
It’ll be interesting to see if Mike Brown decides to push the Spurs and goes more to five-out lineups with KAT and four other shooters. The Knicks have a 125 ORTG, 103.8 DRTG, and +21.2 NETRTG across 80 possessions of five-out lineups in the Finals against the Spurs. That includes a 170.6 ORTG and +33.1 NETRTG in 17 possessions in their Game 3 defeat.
For clarity: Five-out lineups with KAT and four other shooters are basically any lineup where he isn’t sharing the floor with Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson, or Jeremy Sochan.
Over the last two games, the Knicks have outscored the Spurs by 20 points in the 54 possessions of five-out lineups with KAT and four other shooters, sporting a 137 ORTG and +33.2 NETRTG in those minutes. In their other 135 possessions in those two games, the Knicks have been outscored by 23 points by the Spurs, only mustering a 105.2 ORTG, along with a -14.4 NETRTG.
And lastly, let’s circle back to a Game 1 trend in the Knicks’ win. They had forced Wembanyama to shoot jump shots and backed him away from the rim very well. In the Knicks’ Game 1 win vs. the Spurs, 71.4% of his shot attempts were jump shots, as he had an average shot distance of 15.6 feet. However, in each game since, he’s been getting closer and closer to the basket... as his offensive production has skyrocketed.
In each of his last two games, he’s seen his overall field goal percentage over 50% and he’s lowered his percentage of shot attempts being jump shots in each game. In the Spurs’ win in Game 3, Wemby shot 61.1% from the field and his average shot distance was 8.8 feet.
The Knicks will need to be better at making Wembanyama uncomfortable like they had done in Game 1 in San Antonio. The Knicks had done a great job at tagging him high and not allowing him to have free rolls to the basket. That wasn’t the case in Game 3, as he scored 12 points as the roll man in Game 3, according to James Timpf of Hoops Tonight. In the first two games of the series, he had eight total points as the roll man against the Knicks.
Brown has a lot to take in ahead of Game 4 — outside of his issues with the officiating in the Game 3 defeat. Will he look to go back to the well and let Brunson share the floor with another point guard, despite the potential defensive liabilities it could create? Will he work harder to get KAT the ball, even with the years of him struggling against smaller defenders? And what will he do to create havoc for Wemby when he’s on offense?
The great thing about winning the first two games in San Antonio is that the Knicks could afford to lose Game 3... because they enter Game 4 with a 2-1 series lead. A win in Game 4 has become almost a must-have for the Knicks. And history supports that... as 37 of 38 teams to go up 3-1 in the NBA Finals have gone on to win the Finals... the only outlier is the 2016 Cavs, who came back from a 3-1 series deficit to beat the Warriors in seven games.
Game 4 at Madison Square Garden. A chance to move to within one game of being crowned champions. The 13-game win streak is over, but now the Knicks have a chance to start a new winning streak… and this time, the payoff would be a title.
