Late Round Point Guards, Part 1: Cassius Winston

Stacy Patton examines the game of Cassius Winston, an undersized point guard from Michigan State who makes tough shots and could be an asset in the Knicks’ second unit.

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While much of the focus of the Knicks draft-o-sphere has been on who they will take with the No. 8 pick/whether they will trade up for LaMelo Ball/whether Tyrese Halliburton will ever make a pull-up three in the NBA, the Knicks have two other picks at 27 and 38. Unless Killian Hayes falls to eight or the Knicks trade back, it is highly likely the Knicks will take a wing with the No. 8 pick. Even if they don’t, the end of the first round looks to be especially deep at the guard position. With playmaking and shooting being massive needs for the Knicks, this three-part deep-dive series takes a look at three point guards who might be in play and could be useful late-draft picks.

Cassius Winston, Michigan State

6-foot-1, 200 lbs, 22 years old

Strengths

Winston is a dynamic ball handler and shot maker with excellent touch and body control at all three levels. Whether it was tightly winding around screens and throwing up wet 3-pointers off-balance, floaters after coming to a sudden stop from full speed, or contorting his body to finish in traffic at the rim, Winston showed an impressive tool bag of shot making. He was relied on massively as the offensive initiator his last two years at MSU (though Xavier Tillman’s emergence as a short roll playmaker helped here) as well as the late-clock “make something happen” option; the fact that he was able to shoot 46% on twos and 43% on threes despite that level of difficulty is a testament to his skill. 

Winston was a hand-in-glove fit in Tom Izzo’s up-tempo offense. In the clip below, he pushes the ball into a smooth pull-up jumper in transition. Winston was able to feast on opportunities like this, using his quick release and superior vision to punish defenses scrambling to get back on D.

Winston also had deep range and was effective in the catch-and-shoot opportunities he received.

Lacking high-end explosiveness, Winston uses a tight handle and craft to get to his spots on the floor. He is an excellent ball handler and uses an array of moves in isolations, and loves using several in succession. His hesitation move is particularly deadly thanks to the threat of his jumper, and there were many instances of defenders leaving their feet from a simple head fake, opening up driving lanes. 

Look at this nice behind-the-back step back against Kentucky. Cassius has a tight handle and good deceleration ability. Even though he doesn’t create a ton of space here against Ashton Hagans, he doesn’t need much to get his shot off, and he’s a deadly shooter.

Winston’s jump shot is highly efficient. He has a low but very quick release that he is able to get off without much space (which is good, because he doesn’t create a ton of it). He has excellent balance and body control and should be able to run off screens and shoot off movement while also having a viable pull-up game to punish defenders who go under screens. He has deep range too, and an ability to get into his shot from awkward positions. In the midrange, when he was unable to get all the way to the rim, he had impressive balance and touch on floaters. Going from full speed to stopping, setting up the floater, getting under the ball, and killing all your momentum to gently drop the ball in is very difficult, but Cassius was excellent in these situations. He also shot 85% from the free throw line, so all shooting indicators are pointing way up.

Below is a beautiful behind-the-back step back. Tight handles, footwork, and shooting all on display.

The number of difficult floaters, finishes, and contested jump shots he was able to convert was very impressive. Look at this contested lefty no-jump scoop shot against Georgia. This is impressive touch, and something Cassius did with regularity.

Here he gets a switch onto a big defender, takes him outside, and drives left, but after good defense from the big he switches to the right hand to put up this gorgeous floater. To be sure, it’s a bit concerning (more on that below) that he couldn’t win this mismatch more decisively, but his ability to contort his body and hit these shots from difficult angles will always be something he can fall back on. 

Another tough make here as he uses the Isaiah Thomas fake pull out into a drive. The defender recovers, but Cassius is able to absorb the contact and hit a tough runner off the glass.

Cassius’ bread and butter is in the pick-and-roll. Michigan State is an up-tempo team, and they would get downcourt and set up their offense early in the shot clock. When they were forced to play in the half court, this would leave them 24-plus seconds and they would use this time to run two, three, even four pick-and-rolls, screening and re-screening relentlessly until Cassius found a hole in the defense. Cassius is an excellent decision maker in the pick-and-roll and has great vision, is able to hit the roller and shooters, and use excellent pace and patience to manipulate defenders to free up his targets. Cassius also has excellent vision outside the screen game, with several examples of him passing a teammate open at the rim and seeing breakdowns in the back of the defense despite many bodies being in the way. Cassius projects as a very good passer in the NBA. Though he has a high turnover rate, it’s a bit unfair to criticize him too heavily for this, given the immense offensive load he was asked to carry at Michigan State. 

Below is a textbook pick-and-roll play, as he manipulates the big and help defender with an in-and-out dribble to set up the alley-oop to Tillman. Notice how he changes speeds, slowing down at the moment of the screen, letting Tillman get into position, and forcing the defense to commit. He’s got great feel in the pick-and-roll.

Here, facing ice coverage from Illinois, Winston forces Dosunmu to commit to the screen before rejecting it, then goes behind the back into a drive. He forces the big to commit, opening up the pocket pass for an easy dunk to Winston. Cassius’ subtle manipulation and patience makes this happen.

And of course, all of this was set up by Winston having a hair trigger on a dangerous pull up jumper off screens. Defenses will not be able to go under against him. Smooth pull-up off the Spain PnR (nice play call from Izzo, too) here.

Lastly, Winston is small, but has good upper body strength, and showed the ability to finish through contact at the rim. His body control was another advantage here, as he has a variety of finishing moves. He can finish with both hands on no-jump scoops, goofy-footed, hanging in the air and absorbing contact, and showed a ton of acrobatic and creative finishes to get the ball up through the trees. This was important for him, as he didn’t a generate a ton of easy buckets on his own.

Here, after beating the big to the rim, Cassius faces a taller help defender (2021 draft prospect Franz Wagner, who is 6-foot-9), but uses his body to create space and hit a tough layup. Kyle Lowry-esque play here.

Below, a gorgeous up-and-under finish. 

Defensively, Cassius improved tremendously after his sophomore year. His first two seasons he was a poor defender; this was evident in his matchup with in-state rival Michigan, who was led by Zavier Simpson. But along with the rest of his game, Winston’s defense was a revelation as a junior. He has good instincts and recognizes opportunities to peel off his man for steals. He also used his improved strength to re-route ball handlers (smaller than the ones he’ll face in the NBA). He will likely still be a liability, but can be a decent team defender.

Weaknesses

For such a dominant college player, I didn’t see a whole lot of easy buckets and blow-bys from Cassius. He’s an impressive shot maker and he didn’t have a ton of help, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to break down defenses or create space in the NBA without a screen. The clip I linked to above on the tough floater against Georgia is an example of this. Even though he hit the shot, he struggled to create an easy look against a big.

On this step back here, he is guarded by lumbering 6-foot-10 Michigan center Austin Davis. Although this is an excellent shot, Davis is able to recover; Cassius doesn’t create a ton of space, and this is against a defender who is likely to be much slower than anyone Cassius will face in the NBA. 

Many of Cassius’ forays to the rim required another screener in the paint to screen the help defender or required him to complete a difficult layup. Credit to him for the finish, but again, these windows are unlikely to be there at the next level. He should be a capable screen-and-roll operator, but this lack of explosiveness will put a ton of pressure on his jump shot.

The level of difficulty on his finishes is reflected in Winston’s shot chart (courtesy of NBA.com and Synergy):

Shooting only 50% at the rim doesn’t cut it for a starting guard in the NBA. There were mitigating factors, namely a lack of ideal spacing at Michigan State (defenses were content to leave Tillman open at the 3-point line on pick-and-pops), but a large part of this stems from the fact that Winston is undersized and lacks both vertical explosion to the rim and horizontal explosion to create space on the way there. 

Cassius doesn’t project to be switchable at all given his size. He was listed at 6-foot, 183 lbs on MSU’s website, and perhaps he has gained some weight, as NBA.com lists him as 6-foot-1, 200 lbs. He has a tough mentality and will compete on defense, but he will struggle against quicker and bigger guards, and will likely need to be hidden even against bench lineups. Guards like this can still survive by being good team defenders, and Cassius has shown good off-ball instincts, but his 2.1 steal rate isn’t exactly bonkers.

In addition, Winston is one of the older players in this draft at 22; how much more can we expect him to improve? 

Lastly, this is minor as I do think he projects to be a very good shooter, but he does have some inconsistency in his lower body mechanics on the jump shot. When he’s able to hop into his shot on a catch and shoot, he has a beautiful, repeatable sweep and sway with both his legs; but on some of the deeper (NBA-range) attempts off movement or on pull ups, he had a tendency to kick his legs together or have one foot finish way in front of the other. This could be a very fixable lower body issue, and again, it’s tough to argue with his results, but something to monitor. 

Overall

Winston’s physical limitations are noteworthy. He is an undersized guard who lacks explosiveness. This is often a death knell. His feel for the game, skill, and shooting ability give him a chance at sticking as a backup guard. If the shooting translates, he is capable of going off at any time, even with the space creation limitations, and he has the point guard skills to be a very capable second unit floor general. Perhaps the thing that can set him apart the most from previous guards in this mold is his ability to hit truly difficult shots. Who cares if you can create space if you don’t need much? He could potentially have gravity as a movement shooter as well as on pull ups; again, this is still a player that’s likely to be too much of a defensive liability to see significant minutes in the playoffs, but could bring some big-time offensive juice to second units.  

Knicks Fit

The Knicks will likely need to sign two point guards this offseason unless Dennis Smith Jr. takes a massive leap. Cassius is unlikely to be the point guard to carry the Knicks to the promised land, but I think he’d be a very good fit with Frank Ntilikina against bench units. They can share ball handling responsibilities, giving Cassius the option to come off screens while also being the guy to create through pick-and-roll. Frank would also be able to guard the more dangerous guard in any lineup. Pairing Winston with a guy like Taj Gibson, who can set tough screens, head to the right spots, and protect the rim on defense, should help him get the most out of his ability and add some needed offensive leadership to the Knicks’ bench. There are other more pressing needs (stretch 4, versatile power wing, starting point guard) that the Knicks should be addressing at 27, but if they still want to add some shooting and playmaking at 38, Winston could be a solid option. He also seems to be the kind of guy Thibodeau would love to coach.