The Inaugural Strickland 2020 Mock Draft and Roundtable
Our new and improved stable of draft writers, now up to six whole draftniks, recently released the 2nd iteration of our big board. Our prospectors take you all the way out to the 30th pick in search of gold! You can see on the draft cards who has moved up, who is trending down, and what the highest and lowest rankings on each player are. On the heels of that exercise, we pressed our draft experts in a digital room together to have them guesstimate how they thought this wild draft would pan out. The Strickland Draft Room is basically the wild west, so there are only a few ground rules:
10 paces and then shoot!
No trades at the corral, though we did weigh if a pick is likely to be offered in trade talks.
You should consider what a given team’s front office would do based on who runs it, their history, etc., while incorporating our own big board rankings — i.e., if The Strickland is in the war room and we have Aleksej Pokuševski in our top 10, he is probably not falling to 28. Essentially, it’s an exercise indicating what might happen if we were the sidekicks to any team’s GM.
This is where we landed!
And now, for your reading pleasure, a roundtable where the team discusses which teams were hard to peg, which were easy, who went earlier than expected, which fits are great, which are on brand, and more.
Initial thoughts and gut reactions on the top 10 and how it unfolded?
Stingy: All mocks turn out wrong and bad. So I’m very proud of ours for being the first to get every single pick correct.
Prez: Nothing too surprising for me! Though, seriously, I did chuckle at our collective crew all acknowledging, at the same time, that Detroit’s new GM Troy Weaver (formerly right hand man to Sam Presti in OKC) would still end up taking Killian Hayes. No matter the extensive history of acquiring long and/or athletic wings who can’t shoot... If only Okoro was a little bit more of a scorer, or Vassell a little more athletic, then perhaps Killian could have fallen to No. 8... alas, it wasn’t in the cards.
Shwinnypooh: We were writing the cards, yet I was the only person invested in making this mock fall in a way that benefited the Knicks. Everybody else should be ashamed of themselves for not being total homers. Boston trading up for Okongwu in the top 10 is something I expect on draft night, should he be available at No. 7 or later.
Stingy: Hey, hey, hey! No trades, thems the rules. Although… I guess that’s a takeaway. Can we talk about the Knicks already, please?
Stacy Patton: No. I’m steeling myself for the Killian Hayes dream to be ended one pick too early, as always seems to be the case for the Knicks. I think he’s too good and fits too well for Detroit. They’ve stated they want a franchise point guard. He can’t fall to New York. Everybody knows it.
Tyrese: This mock captured the spirit of what teams are going to prioritize heading into draft night. Killian should be a Knick, but of course we just had to be “logical.” My big disagreement, though, is the value of Kira Lewis Jr. I think that the Suns are more likely to take him over Okoro, and I personally expect Okoro to be the big drop of the draft.
Stingy: Yeah, but the Knicks. The Knicks, god damn it!
Stacy: Right, well we have them taking Devin Vassell. I was a bit surprised that we settled on Vassell over Okoro without much debate. They’re close, but I was pulling for Devin.
Stacy: It seems people who like Vassell also like Okoro, whether they come out on one side or the other. I look forward to more debate among the Knicksverse between these two. Hopefully it can be more sophisticated than just “Vassell can shoot.”
Theo: Honestly, I’d be okay with either one (although, I’m sure that won’t be the case when we re-evaluate this five years from now). But getting an impactful wing defender that can guard multiple positions isn’t a loss when everything else is shrouded in uncertainty.
If this mock holds some type of truth, this might be the first draft in recent memory where shooting goes quick and fast, in a hurry! Cole Anthony, Aaron Nesmith, Desmond Bane, Grant Riller, Tyrell Terry, and Isaiah Joe all went higher than in many other mocks floating around.
Is our collective desire for shooting on the Knicks coloring our prediction, or is this the draft where GMs finally don’t undervalue shooters?
Tyrese: GMs might not be ready to catch on, but this year’s playoffs really highlighted how much deadeye shooters open up the rest of the playbook for everyone else, and I think that teams are going to be looking for the next Tyler Herro or Duncan Robinson. Pull-up and off-the-dribble shooting are very necessary to run an offense in today’s NBA, and I think teams could potentially reach on players who flash those skills in order to not fall behind.
Stingy: …but not necessarily stay ahead of the curve. Shooters allowing for a wider variety of players to become the cog in the wheel was blatantly obvious for Miami’s two stars. Herro jet-skiing around Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo emphasized just how special a non-spacer can be when they have a gigantic commercial kitchen to cook in. Obviously Julius Randle is not on Bam’s level, but if he had a sniper squad around him?
Theo: He’d obviously look much better. Ditto for RJ. If anything, the Miami blueprint should serve as a model for how the Knicks should look to build around RJ (I use that word “around” loosely). In the end, premium shotmaking is needed to contend at the highest level, but I think we have enough evidence to see that just because a guy can’t necessarily shoot, doesn’t mean that he can’t be played to the peak of his strengths.
Shwinnypooh: The Knicks need to prioritize shooting, because it makes it easier to evaluate their current core pieces as well as being an absolute necessity in team building in the current NBA. Even if they determine that RJ, Mitch, Frank, Kevin, etc. aren’t players to build with or around long-term, adding shooting has value in allowing them to build around and with whomever they do determine is a certified building block.
Who from the last ten picks in our mock could you see going much higher once draft day comes, and why?
Tyrese: Tyrell Terry, in my opinion. His shooting is already catching the eye of the general public, and with the added weight and height, as well as the general thirst for shooting and extreme spacing of teams in the back half of the draft, I think there will be a lot of suitors for him.
Prez: I’m gonna irresponsibly project my belated scouting of Malachi Flynn onto everyone else. The kid is talented. Every guard from Washington state has WILD handles (Isaiah Thomas, Kevin Porter Jr, Jamal Crawford, Nate Robinson, Dejounte Murray, and some ball-hog guard the Knicks had last year), and if I had known Flynn was from there, I would’ve been irresponsibly high on him long ago. I don’t know if Twitter if reflective of real front offices, but he’s been getting buzz lately despite being a 6-foot-1 22-year-old... likely because he can shoot from distance, score at three levels, and compete on defense (especially off-ball, more important for a short guard who will be a liability 1-on-1 defensively).
Stacy: Josh Green is a guy who has been mocked a bunch in the teens, and earlier in the season he was even mocked at the end of the lottery. He is a very athletic, long wing who shot a solid 36% from three, 78% from the FT line and had a very good AST:TO ratio. His finishing was bad, and he doesn’t have the quickest first step, but wings with his tools and skillset at age 19 don’t typically last until pick 28.
Stingy: Give me Precious Achiuwa. He’s got the size and plenty of skills. He’s just too in love with letting his nuts swang. Maybe that stemmed a bit from trying to take the reins at Memphis with Wiseman leaving early. In a rotation that’s tougher to crack, maybe some team can harness his wild powers for the good of the team.
Theo: RJ Hampton. There’s been a lot of buzz about his workouts with Mike Miller and how he completely revamped his shooting form. As skeptical as I am, there are some people that believe he can eventually be a really good shooter. Add in the fact that he’s young, fast, and explosive, and there’s bound to be some teams that think it’s wise to take a gamble on the athletic tools-y guard and hope his skillset catches up later.
Shwinnypooh: RJ Hampton is so tools-y and GMs loooooove tools-y guys. In a draft seen as being short of star power, taking a big cut at a guy with his athletic gifts, and banking on your development and coaching staff to mold him into a dynamic lead guard seems like the kind of thing that could appeal to teams earlier on than it normally would.
Who are we missing that deserves strong first round consideration?
Prez: I don’t know about strong consideration, but there are some “meh” school elite shooters above 6-foot-5 with some ancillary skills, like Sam Merrill and Justinian Jessup, who might be in teams’ top 30s just off of how the league is trending.
Stingy: More shooters! But yeah, the choices we made really did spurn NBA size and athleticism more than the actual NBA might willing to. We couldn’t find a satisfying enough landing spot for Jalen Smith, so he slipped almost into round two. He was 17th on our big board, but ultimately sliding to the Raptors may actually benefit his career a lot more than just getting scooped up by a team in “the right range.” Range is a fallacy.
Stacy: I’ll go to bat here for Robert Woodard. At 6-foot-7, 230 lbs, he is already an elite on-ball defender with switch-ability and events generation ability, as well as a projectable jump shot with good percentages on threes and mid-range (FT% is a bit of a red flag, but his form looks projectable).
Theo: I’ll go unorthodox for this one and say Vernon Carey Jr. The consensus is that he’s probably Jahlil Okafor Jr., as he’s a big from Duke who’s known for scoring in the low post, but probably can’t defend to save his life. That may be true, but he posted higher block, steal and rebound rates than Okafor did in his lone freshman season as a Blue Devil. More impressively, there are only two freshmen that have averaged at least 17 points per game, had a TRB% of 19 and posted a BPM over 10, per Sports-Reference: Carey Jr. and Deandre Ayton. I’m not suggesting that he’ll be on the level of Ayton, but he’s probably the best non-defensive big in this draft (looking at you, Obi). Where he lands on an NBA roster’s hierarchy is up in the air, but I think there is enough evidence to determine he’s certainly a first round talent.
Tyrese: Gonna show some love to Killian Tillie here. Yes, he’s a bit older. Yes, there is an injury risk. However, he is a legitimate stretch big that is capable of a variety of threes and can play either position in the front court while being able to survive on the perimeter or offer rim protection against other bigs. If he gets whatever Steph Curry got to fix his constant ankle issues, he’s going to be a very good player for a long time. In a draft like this, especially with it being very good depth-wise, Tillie feels like a no-brainer to me.
Shwinnypooh: I’ll say Paul Reed and I’ll keep it short. Anybody who averages 2.6 blocks and 1.9 steals per game profiles as somebody who can add a ton of value to your team, even with concerns over positional fit. I would be surprised if stat nerds in front offices around the league aren’t banging the table for this guy, especially in the 20s.
When looking holistically, considering fit and NBA readiness, which team set themselves up for the biggest bump in success?
Three teams had multiple picks. Boston with three, Minnesota and New York with two. So they have an advantage here, but who got the best bang for their buck?
Stingy: For my heavily taxed dollar, it’s Minnesota here. High-powered playmaking and high-powered shooting with Ball and Bane. Toss them into the lineup with Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell, and they might be able to generate the third sheet carbon copy of a Mavericks-North type of lineup. Some funky inversions and it looks a little more static, but for a team looking to show they belong, these two picks throw some logs on a dwindling fire.
Tyrese: Minnesota got the best haul, easily. Ball’s ceiling is easily the highest of anybody in the draft, in my opinion, and if he gets anywhere close to it, he’s either a highly attractive piece to trade for a third star or makes Russell expendable. Bane is a do-it-all wing who is one of the best shooters in the draft, with great defense to boot, so Minnesota is walking away with two great picks for the future.
Shwinnypooh: Minnesota for sure. They get LaMelo Ball, arguably the highest ceiling player in this draft, who possesses potentially generational playmaking talent and opens up all kinds of possibilities on the court and in trade (maybe he makes DLo expendable). Then they add the exact type of combo guard with highly proficient 3-point shooting, secondary facilitating upside, and plus defense that they are desperate for with Bane. Boston didn’t do bad either, adding a combo guard with shot creation upside in Maxey and a playmaking big like Tillman, but Nnaji doesn’t do much for me.
Prez: Minny had a good draft, but I don’t think they “set themselves up for success.” They still face the same issue they did pre-draft, in theory: none of their core guys can play good defense, and they don’t complement each other particularly well on offense. Them taking Ant or LaMelo doesn’t change that. I know we had a no trade rule, but if they don’t trade this pick, they’re gonna be right back in the lottery next year. I know Minny fans didn’t get to see KAT and DLo together too much, but you’re essentially banking on the Mavericks formula: a historically great offense to offset an awful defense... and Luka and KP, respectively, are still pretty far beyond DLo/Melo and KAT defensively! So with all that said, I think Tillman, Nnaji, and Maxey will contribute much more to Boston’s success in a meaningful way than LaMelo and Bane — even if I would pick LaMelo and Bane myself for Minnesota, if only because 1) fit matters and 2) point guard learning curves on defense and offense can be steep. What they do with their assets is going to be insanely important for them.
Theo: I really like the haul that Boston came out with, to be honest. I had Maxey ranked eighth on my big board, so to me, he’s a steal at that spot. Playing off of guys like Tatum, Kemba, and Hayward will allow him to focus more on his strengths early (scoring off-ball, cutting, finishing at the rim) and ease into more ball handling responsibilities as time progresses. Xavier Tillman is a smart do-it-all big man that has tremendous intangibles and can defend, pass, and rebound. Brad Stevens should have no issue getting every ounce of potential out of him, similar to what he’s been able to do for Daniel Theis. Assuming that this mock draft mirrors real life, Boston gets to add two impactful young players that can immediately be slotted into a rotation that was one game away from the NBA Finals. That sounds like a win to me.
Stacy: Am I the only one who actually thinks this would be a pretty good outcome for the Knicks? Maxey and Tillman will both be valuable guys, and they fit very well with what the Celtics want to do on both ends of the floor. But the Knicks got two potential starters who should be able to help right away, give the Knicks a more modern playing style, and have some upside. Vassell’s development as a ball handler and pull-up shooter could indicate some self-creation down the line, especially as he puts on more weight; if not, he’ll still be a plug-and-play 3-and-D guy with elite off-ball ability off the bat. If Flynn translates as a nuclear shooter rather than just a very good one, we could be talking about a high-level starter; even if not, he should be able to come in next year and run pick-and-rolls, provide shooting, avoid turnovers and energize the Knicks’ offense while making enough plays on D to avoid being a complete liability. I’d say that’s a pretty big win from a team that has struggled to find contributors through the draft.
