The Strickland’s Round 1 Knicks-Hawks Roundtable
It’s playoff time. Let’s talk about it.
Thoughts on the Hawks as the Knicks’ first round opponent?
Luca: I know everyone wanted to draw the Raptors in the first round, but I’m not overly concerned about the Hawks, either. Nickeil Alexander-Walker probably is a lock to win Most Improved Player and Jalen Johnson is having an All-NBA level season, but outside of those two there aren’t too many guys who scare me. The Knicks have answers for the Hawks’ other options in their starting lineup, and they don’t have the depth the Knicks have.
Tyrese: They’ve had a great season, and their FO has shown the ability to make some savvy moves in their first year thus far (getting the Pelicans’ first, swapping out Terance Mann for Kristaps Porzingis, then swapping KP out for Jonathan Kuminga, shedding salary in the Trae Young deal, NAW sign-and-trade). On the court, I think they’re pretty pesky and have a ton of versatility with their bigger starting lineup. Their weaknesses would be their lack of frontcourt size and their overall depth, both areas I expect the Knicks to be able to exploit.
Sam: I think the Hawks could pose a good early playoff challenge for the Knicks, similarly to how the Pistons did for last year’s team. They have solid starters but their depth, or lack thereof, could pose a problem for them, similar to last year’s Knicks team. They play about 7-8 guys and their starters play a heavy load for them, which we saw in their final regular season clash with the Knicks.
Kon: I think the Hawks are good. Probably better than the Hawks team that bounced the “We Here” COVID Knicks way back when. There’s decent size pretty much all around and they’ll make Brunson defend, even if it’s on a non-shooter like Dyson Daniels. Not that he’s some X-factor, but Jock Landale missing this series is a big deal for the Hawks. With Tony Bradley replacing Landale, the Hawks went from “hopefully we can somewhat contain Mitchell Robinson on the glass… maybe?” to not having a shot at all.
Alex: The Hawks are good, but I think they’re currently in the “amass as many good wings as possible” stage and need to get that cold-blooded playoff killer at guard. CJ McCollum will probably have a moment or two, but he’s over the hill. NAW is really good, but is he that guy? I mean maybe he’ll prove he’s him and open some eyes this series, but I don’t know. I’m really impressed with what the Hawks have built the last few years, but they don’t strike fear in me this year.
Who or what is the Knicks X-Factor?
Prez: Josh Hart. On defense he will probably be tasked with defending Jalen Johnson the most. On the glass he is the wing most equipped to help mute the Hawks’ offensive rebounding. And on offense he will be the most wide-open regularly. Over the Knicks’ last 15 games, he has played in 10 and shot 16-25 (not a typo) on catch-and-shoot threes and 7-13 (not a typo) on pull-up threes. He’s been doing real damage from the corners. Finally, while the Hawks are good at limiting transition frequency, they are bottom-five in the league at actually defending transition attempts when they happen. So between the one-man-band-breaks and corner threes, Hart has a chance to throw some real backbreakers.
Luca: Karl-Anthony Towns. The Hawks are a small team to begin with, playing Onyeka Okongwu at the 5, and with Landale set to miss the series due to injury, KAT should have plenty of opportunity to feast offensively. I’m also very intrigued to see how Brown continues to get KAT involved, and how his two-man game with Brunson continues to evolve as we hit higher-stakes basketball. I also think KAT has a chance to cause issues defensively – in the last matchup against Atlanta, Mike Brown had him matched up on Daniels, giving him the freedom to roam from the corners in help.
Tyrese: Mitchell Robinson for me. The Hawks already are lacking size in the frontcourt, so he feels like a good shot to twist the knife even further. Throughout his playoff career, we’ve seen Mitchell Robinson win multiple series with his offensive rebounding and defense, and being able to matchup against Okongwu, Tony Bradley or Mohamed Gueye throughout the series projects to be devastating for that frontline.
Sam: The Knicks’ depth and experience of experimentation. Two areas of weakness for the Knicks last postseason can prove to be their greatest strength this postseason. The Knicks spent a good majority of this season playing a multitude of different players in different scenarios. We got to see extended rotational minutes for players like Tyler Kolek, Mohamed Diawara, Jose Alvarado and a player like Jordan Clarkson go from rotation mainstay, to out the rotation, to rotation mainstay once again. Whether that’s because of Brown’s willingness or injuries throughout the season, we as fans have been able to witness different lineups for different scenarios, and maybe the Hawks will force the Knicks into trying these different lineups and different looks that can throw them off – which would be a far cry from the last time the Knicks faced the Hawks in the playoffs in 2021.
Alex: Purely a hunch, but I’ll say Jordan Clarkson. I think similar to Cam Payne last year, this guy has a 10-plus point run bridging a third to fourth quarter in him that will turn the tide in a game and win one game this series for the Knicks.
Who or what will give the Knicks the most issues in this series?
Prez: NAW is genuinely an elite open shot shooter, so if the Hawks decide to try and spam transition threes it might be a way for them to give the Knicks some 3-point-variance related difficulties.
Luca: Closing out possessions on defense. Teams with more athletic backcourts, a la Detroit, Atlanta, Houston to name a few have made it a point to target Brunson on the defensive glass all season long. With the way the Hawks can heat up from three, it’s extremely important not to give up extra possessions and leave the game up to variance and volume.
Tyrese: The fucking screeching sound effect after made threes in State Farm arena. Worst audio effects in the league BY FAR.
Sam: One thing I noticed not only in the last Atlanta game, but also the Boston game, was the Knicks allowing offensive rebounds to those teams and allowing extra possessions. The Knicks need to limit extra opportunities for the other team and win the possession battle.
Alex: If they’re given issues during the non-Brunson minutes. I think we’ve seen at this point that, regardless of if the Hawks want Daniels glued to Brunson, the Knicks can shake that matchup late in the shot clock and get Brunson open looks against this team. But in the non-Brunson minutes, and with a tightened playoff rotation on an already-tight-rotationed Hawks team, will their length be able to disrupt things and win the minutes that the Knicks don’t have their floor general out there?
What lineup will be most effective against Atlanta?
Luca: I think the double big lineup has a chance to really drown the Hawks. They don’t have a ton of size in the frontcourt to begin with, and the combination of KAT and Mitch on the offensive glass will give the Knicks a number of second and third chances for their elite shooters to cash in on.
Tyrese: I think the starting lineup has a pretty good chance to be effective this series, especially if Josh Hart is a willing shooter.
Alex: I’m with Luca, I hope Brown tries to give the double big lineup some run, possibly in the non-Brunson minutes with maybe Clarkson, Hart, and Mikal or OG? Would be just enough ball handling, plenty of good defenders, plenty of rebounding, and just enough shooting if Hart can keep up his 40% (or way more as of late) clip, which he always seems to do in the playoffs.
Is Jordan Clarkson going to remain the Knicks’ 9th man?
Prez: Yes. The mix of he himself smashing the offensive glass, and him taking mostly floaters now, which even when they miss can lead to offensive rebounds, is a possession game advantage I think the Knicks will be keen to leverage. Especially when the Hawks try to stick a bum defender like McCollum or whatever bench guard on him.
Tyrese: He’s turned himself into lumpia guard-sized Mitchell Robinson, so I think so. The ball-handling and general ability to score is going to matter as well.
Sam: I’m not overly confident. I think him and Shamet are the most flexible players in the rotation just because they can both be streaky. I think Clarkson may need to up his 3-point rate a smidge to be effective in this series, but I am also happy to be wrong.
Alex: I said he could be their X-factor this series so I hope for my prediction’s sake that he is!
Series over/under 5.5 games?
Prez: Under.
Tyrese: Under.
Luca: Under.
Sam: I say over, only because it seems like almost every playoff series the Knicks have played over the last 2-3 years have gone to at least six games with the exception of the Cavs series in the 2023 playoffs. Again, I would hope to be wrong once again and hope that was a Thibs exclusive DLC for the Knicks.
Alex: Over. This team is gonna scrap and they’re gonna take a couple games off the Knicks. I could see them stealing one at the Garden and the Knicks ending it in Atlanta in Game 6.
