It’s time for Mike Brown to make a difficult lineup decision

The numbers scream that one Knick in particular has not been a positive with the starters this season.

For the first time in the Jalen Brunson Era, the Knicks trail in a first round playoff series, after dropping Games 2 and 3 to the Hawks. First off, I have some bad news and good news to share…

The bad news: the Knicks have lost three straight playoff games in Atlanta, having not won a playoff game there since May 1999. According to Knicks Stats on Twitter, the Knicks enter Game 4 having lost 22 of 27 series when going down 2-1… and they’ve lost each of their last five such series, having not won since the 2000 East Semis against the Miami Heat.

The good news: they’re a Game 4 win away from retaking home court advantage from Atlanta. A win in Game 4 would virtually create a best-of-three series, meaning the Knicks would have to win two of those three games to advance… that’s probably easier to digest than needing to win three of (potentially) four games, right?

I’m just trying to maintain hope over here. Of course, I’m back to talk about lineups before Game 4.

The Knicks’ starting lineup as a whole had been good in Games 1 and 2 with a 124.2 offensive rating (ORTG), 111.9 defensive rating (DRTG), and +4 net rating (NETRTG) across 92 possessions. However, things came tumbling down in Game 3 in Atlanta with the five-man starting lineup getting outscored 13-to-24 (72.2 ORTG, 126.3 DRTG, -54.1 NETRTG) in 18 possessions.

The Knicks, despite their starting lineup issues, found a way to come all the way back from an 18-point deficit to have a 3-point lead with less than a minute left. However, bad offense, tough bounces in the Hawks’ favor, and good shot-making from Atlanta put New York in a 2-1 series hole heading into Game 4. Brown coached a better game than the previous one, but that still wasn’t enough… and chaos among all interested parties continues.

While we still saw six possessions (two points, -4 +/-) to start the fourth quarter without Jalen Brunson or Karl-Anthony Towns, Brown went back to his roots and had at least one of his star players on the court for 45:21 of the 48 minutes in the game. That also includes the four seconds of a defensive possession near the end of the game that didn’t have either of the two stars out there for defensive purposes.

The most-played lineup for the Knicks in Game 3 wasn’t their starting lineup. In fact, the only other time the starting lineup didn’t play 20-plus possessions in a game they started, every player made it out healthy, and/or there wasn’t a blowout was March 8 vs. the Lakers. In Game 3, the most-played lineup was one that had Deuce McBride in the regular five-man lineup instead of Mikal Bridges. In fact, among the six most-played lineups in Game 3, two of the three lineups had Deuce — as well as Josh Hart and KAT.

Also notable: the Jose Alvarado-led bench lineup with Landry Shamet, Jordan Clarkson, OG Anunoby, and Towns held the line in their six possessions together in the second quarter. Obviously, you can’t play Brunson all 48 minutes, so it’s nice to see there’s evidence of the team not rolling over without him.

With Friday’s game, the Knicks have 8,324 offensive possessions on the season, including the NBA Cup Final vs. the Spurs and the playoffs vs. the Hawks. The starting lineup has played 1,241 of those possessions and has a -0.1 NETRTG.

So, let’s take a look at some notable five-man lineup data. 

As mentioned, the starting lineup is officially a negative on the season. If you replace Hart with Deuce, that lineup has an amazing offense (133 ORTG), but it has a -0.4 NETRTG in 188 possessions. If you replace OG with Deuce, you have an amazing offense (136.8 ORTG) and a great NETRTG (+17.6), but the defense isn’t good enough (119.2 DRTG) across a total of 242 possessions. 

While the lineup that brought the Knicks back into Game 3 in Atlanta has only played 64 possessions together, it’s given the Knicks everything in terms of offense (129.7 ORTG) and defense (76.2 DRTG) throughout the season. 

You might be thinking that 64 offensive possessions of basketball isn’t a large enough sample size, and I don’t disagree with that sentiment. So, let’s use two full seasons of data for the Brunson/Deuce/Hart/OG/KAT five-man lineup. Going back to the start of last season, that five-man lineup has a 131.7 ORTG, 98.4 DRTG, and a +33.0 NETRTG across 259 possessions (around 130 minutes together), including the playoffs.

Brown rightfully decided that the best chance the Knicks had at winning — or getting back into the game — was to replace Bridges with McBride. The starting lineup has garnered question marks all season, that’s no secret. The popular belief for those who had questions was to replace Hart with Deuce, maximizing KAT with five-out spacing. 

Let’s take a step back for one second. In this series, the Knicks have been successful in Brunson and KAT’s minutes together, but that’s come mostly on the defensive side (105.5 DRTG), leading to a +7.9 NETRTG in almost 200 possessions together vs. the Hawks. 

Back to what we came here for: What’s the best way of bringing this all together?

As I wrote in late January, the problem hasn’t been Hart... it’s been the wings the Knicks have paid and traded for around Brunson and Towns. Also, if you’re aiming to get McBride as much playing time as possible alongside Brunson, the player that two-man pairing works best with is Hart. 

The Brunson/Deuce/Hart three-man lineup has a 129.0 ORTG, 106.5 DRTG, and +22.5 NETRTG in 630 possessions together this season. That’s the best NETRTG out of the four possible combos to play 600-plus possessions that include both Brunson and McBride this season.

This isn’t some new thing for the Knicks. Over the last two postseasons, the Brunson/Deuce/Hart lineups have a 122.2 ORTG, 106.8 DRTG, and a +15.4 NETRTG in 288 possessions. Over the last two seasons overall (regular season and playoffs), that three-man lineup has played 1,575 possessions together, posting a 127.0 ORTG, 113.7 DRTG, and a +13.3 NETRTG. Every way you cut it, these three guys dominate their minutes together. 

Looking further into pairings with Brunson and KAT specifically, that duo has played 15-plus possessions alongside five different players in the playoffs against the Hawks so far: Hart (182), Anunoby (151), Bridges (138), Deuce (55), and Jordan Clarkson (18). The only player in that group that Brunson and KAT haven’t won their minutes with is Bridges (-9.8 NETRTG). To the shock of noone, Brunson and KAT have played best with Deuce, sporting a 125.5 ORTG, 75.5 DRTG, and +50 NETRTG.

During the regular season, the Knicks got the most out of their star duo when they didn’t have both their two-way wings on the floor. In 786 possessions without Anunoby, the Brunson/KAT duo had a 125.6 ORTG and +9.5 NETRTG. In 372 possessions without Bridges, the Brunson/KAT duo had a 120.7 ORTG and +8.8 NETRTG. 

In the playoffs, the Knicks have a 97.2 ORTG and -2.8 NETRTG without OG (36 possessions) on the floor with the Brunson/KAT duo, compared to a 132.7 ORTG and +58.2 NETRTG without Bridges (48 possessions) on the floor. Most of that damage without Bridges obviously came in the Game 3 near-comeback attempt when the Knicks were +29 in the 19.5 minutes with their star duo on the floor without Bridges. Still, that’s a staggering 61-point difference in NETRTG!

The Knicks traded five first-round picks (four unprotected picks and a pick swap) to the Nets in July 2024 for Mikal Bridges. Everyone brings that up — and for good reason.

Bridges had an up-and-down first season in 2024-25 but he had a ton of great moments in the playoffs, specifically carrying the offense at times in the fourth quarter in the first two rounds and two game-saving defensive plays against Boston. He started off this season strong, but he’s been more of an absent cardio bystander since the All-Star break. In his final 27 regular season games, he averaged 11.3 PPG on 54.2% TS%, and the Knicks were 5.3 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor than on the floor.

He's taken a step even further down the hole he’s dug himself in the playoffs, averaging just seven PPG on 45.9% TS% with a -10.3 NETRTG. He also hasn’t registered a single point in his last six quarters of basketball, dating back to Game 2. Meanwhile, OG Anunoby has been as good of a third option and two-way player as you could ask for in the playoffs, averaging 20.3 PPG with a 72.0% TS% in three games, as the Knicks have a +2.3 NETRTG in his minutes this postseason.

This has been an extended stretch of bad play from Bridges. In his postgame interview on Jan. 28 after a 30-point effort in a win over the Raptors, he was talking about how he felt too entitled and not coachable. In 38 games since, he’s averaging 11.9 PPG with a 31.9% 3P% and 55.2% TS%. During this same span, the Knicks have been 9.6 points per 100 possessions better with him off the floor than on the floor.

The move seems pretty obvious — and you’ll have to just accept the PR nightmare. Either you remove Bridges from the starting lineup, replacing him with McBride, or you just simply have to manage him like how Brown did in Game 3, only playing him 20.5 minutes. The Knicks have played 290 offensive possessions of basketball during these playoffs vs. the Hawks. The only category where the Knicks are better with Bridges on the floor as opposed to him sitting is defensive rebounding.

With Bridges off the floor, they’re scoring 1.28 PPP with a +24.4 NETRTG, shooting 50.5% from the field. With him on the floor, they’re scoring 1.03 PPP with a -10.3 NETRTG and shooting 41.7% from the field. Is all of that his fault? Of course not, but we’re also coming off a game where Bridges posted a game-worst -26 and got benched for McBride, who made five threes and was a +16 in just over 31 minutes.

Even if Deuce isn’t hitting shots, he provides more off-ball gravity — something that greatly benefits the likes of Brunson. He also is a better screen navigator, something that very much matters when a guy like CJ McCollum is the Hawks’ guard ball-handler. And speaking of McCollum, he was 3-11 with nine points in 20:21 on the floor when Deuce was also on the floor for the Knicks in Game 3… and yes, that still includes the game-winning shot he hit over him.

Speaking of Deuce’s five threes, Bridges has made three threes in three games! He’s made four threes in a game once (March 24 vs. New Orleans) since he drained five threes on March 1 vs. the Spurs... a game he scored 25 points in... and he hasn’t scored that many points in a game outside of that in three months.

Let’s get one thing straight: if you bench Bridges and insert Deuce into the starting lineup, there’s no coming back from that. So maybe Brown would rather have Deuce still play starters’ minutes and have him still come off the bench. However, the Knicks are a Game 4 loss away from having to win three straight elimination games to save their season.

In his post-game press conference on Thursday, Brown was asked by reporters if he’d consider starting McBride in Game 4. According to Steve Popper of Newsday Sports, he didn’t provide a yes-or-no answer, saying he wasn’t even thinking about Saturday yet.

Fast forward to Friday, and Brown had a different tune on the whole ordeal, telling reporters, including Stefan Bondy of The New York Post, “everything is on the table” when it comes to the starting lineup.

Having Bridges come off the bench probably also shortens your rotation to eight players… taking Landry Shamet (29% from three in 19 games since the start of March) out of the equation. However, the three bench guys being Bridges, Clarkson (in his new late-career form), and Mitchell Robinson becomes a solid solution. 

If those guys are your first three subs in a game, that means the Knicks could bring back a lineup we haven’t seen in the playoffs: one that has Brunson and Hart playing alongside those three guys. That five-man lineup during the regular season (73 possessions) had a 143.8 ORTG and +23.0 NETRTG, along with a 41.7% OREB%.

With that being said, a first-round exit after the Knicks had fired their head coach even with a conference finals defeat could be catastrophic to this franchise’s core. Any drastic lineup or minutes change could hurt feelings, but there’s a bigger picture for the Knicks to worry about.